Wednesday, September 9, 2020

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Stock Selection List Short Term Study (2 Weeks Timeframe) for 09-Sep-20


Since mid of August, I have started doing this as a study so the readers of this blog can learn along with me. I am also giving valuable list of stocks for quick profit. If anyone bought Kiriindus and Trent on the morning of 25th August as they showed up in 24th August list, they would have gotten a profit of 4-6% by evening.

I got inspired for this selection when I once noticed Indigo on daily chart and next day bought its CE at 9 and sold at 18 after few hours. Later traded TNPL, INFIBEAM, DIAMONDYD, JOCIL, BLISSGVS, ATULAUTO, during mid weeks of August and booked about 5% profit in a short time. Every stock may not rise the very next day. But I observed the potential for a rise in the next 10 days, on few stocks over a historical period of five years. Thus I decided to make such list everyday and trade familiar stocks or observe them for building trading watchlists to grow familiarity to trade later.

Today's short term selection list for short term study (2 weeks timeframe). Their performance will be reviewed after 23-Sep.

company symbol  today's close price  % rise today
ZICOM 2.2 4.8

Same table as a picture.

Commentary:

Again one stock in the list today. Actually during the day NIFTY fell more than 1 percent. Though it recovered by eod but still in negative. That means, sentiment is still negative. Glad that today's smaller list conforms to that. And BANKNIFTY didn't recover by eod. So Bank stocks are dragging the market. Banks always crash the markets. Historically proven.

Yesterday there was news about RBI accepting Kamath Committee report for loan restructuring. From that my understanding that companies that struggled with loans prior to covid, will continue to struggle post covid. Other business that earlier had good debt service coverage ratio but affected by lockdowns now, would get benefit of loan restructuring. A stock like Hindustan Unilever Ltd, would not be affected by these kind of events as it doesn't have any debt. Debt is one important factor that affects stocks in the long term.

Warren Buffet said "invest in a company that any fool can run. Because eventually a fool will run it." Debt-less companies can always be considered for long term investment. If we see businesses of Tatas, Anil Amabani, those which did well only for a part of their history and languishing steadily with time are because they are bitten by debt. Anil Ambani is also noted for destroying shareholder wealth (as per Wikipedia). Recently Big Bazaar (Future Groups) was struggling due to loans taken to aggressively expand. Earlier Future Group companies did well historically. Debt is such a thing that works well bull market only to wipe out everything eventually. It probably works if fraud is also involved. For what reasons did Yes Bank, DHFL, IL&FS rock the markets in the last two years? This rabbit hole of debt goes very deep. No point in wasting time talking about it. Better to focus on non-debt companies.

Zicom at 2.2 is a shame. I traded it almost a decade ago between 40-90 levels and repeatedly made profits at that time. Finding a stock that performs excellently well from a small cap list has very low probability.

As US markets are bouncing, tomorrow's list might be bigger. But I guess it is still not time for strong uptrend. In downtrends, we get sharp rises of shorter timeframe which make us not get out hoping for full recovery, when trapped. Stocks that show up now must have significance in the medium term. We can note them.

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