Monday, August 31, 2020

Stock Selection List Short Term Study (2 Weeks Timeframe) for 31-Aug-20

Since mid of August, I have started doing this as a study so the readers of this blog can learn along with me. I am also giving valuable list of stocks for quick profit. If anyone bought Kiriindus and Trent on the morning of 25th August as they showed up in 24th August list, they would have gotten a profit of 4-6% by evening.

I got inspired for this selection when I once noticed Indigo on daily chart and next day bought its CE at 9 and sold at 18 after few hours. Later traded TNPL, INFIBEAM, DIAMONDYD, JOCIL, BLISSGVS, ATULAUTO, during mid weeks of August and booked about 5% profit in a short time. Every stock may not rise the very next day. But I observed the potential for a rise in the next 10 days, on few stocks over a historical period of five years. Thus I decided to make such list everyday and trade familiar stocks or observe them for building trading watchlists to grow familiarity to trade later.

Today's short term selection list for short term study (2 weeks timeframe). Their performance will be reviewed after 14-Sep.

company symbol  % rise today  today's close price
HERITGFOOD 5.3 361.6
NETF 0.8 116.9
TIPSINDLTD 3 188.7

Same table as a picture.


Commentary:

Today NIFTY had a gap up opening, touched almost 11800 level and kept falling throughout the day. As shown on the hourly chart below, it fell every single hour today and that too faster as it kept falling. It reversed 7 days of gains in one day today (including the more than 120 point gain at the open today).


This is not something we can prepare. If we do we would miss the past days of gains. Probably many more prior days or months too.

But with our own statistic from the list, we get the idea as the count today is only 2 stocks (ignoring ETF). I noticed INDTERRAIN was up >6% in the morning but went to negative at some point and finally held about half the gains. IDEA too did the same. Due to the news of Reliance Future group deal, FRetail was at UC. It showed up in Thursday's list. It was at 130 then. It is at 162 and UC today. It will go up more due to share-swaps announced. As per that it might either reach 200 by itself or the FEL (future enterprises) might fall from 20 to 16. Where-ever they converge. But missed to see the news when there was chance. The news came up on 19th August itself. On 19th August Heritage Food also showed up at 370 (I started the list blogs from 20th August). It pulled back and rose by 5% today and showed up in the list again.

Today many stocks fell like a pack of cards. Except two stocks all were in red in Nifty. Midcap and Small cap indices were down in the morning while NIFTY was still in green. My portfolio followed same route. I sold off LICHSGFIN while I could. Now may not be the time to look for short term trades. If nifty doesn't fall persistently for next few days we will continue to see more stocks showing up in lists. The major news today seems to be India-China border tensions. As it is a first fall after several days of rise, it could find support. But if the falls happen in such a way that the lows keep getting broken day after day, then the sentiment turns negative and much worse falls happen soon after that. At that time we won't get stocks in the list for several consecutive days.

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Friday, August 28, 2020

Stock Selection List Short Term Study (2 Weeks Timeframe) for 28-Aug-20

Since mid of August, I have started doing this as a study so the readers of this blog can learn along with me. I am also giving valuable list of stocks for quick profit. If anyone bought Kiriindus and Trent on the morning of 25th August as they showed up in 24th August list, they would have gotten a profit of 4-6% by evening.

I got inspired for this selection when I once noticed Indigo on daily chart and next day bought its CE at 9 and sold at 18 after few hours. Later traded TNPL, INFIBEAM, DIAMONDYD, JOCIL, BLISSGVS, ATULAUTO, during mid weeks of August and booked about 5% profit in a short time. Every stock may not rise the very next day. But I observed the potential for a rise in the next 10 days, on few stocks over a historical period of five years. Thus I decided to make such list everyday and trade familiar stocks or observe them for building trading watchlists to grow familiarity to trade later.

Today's short term selection list for short term study (2 weeks timeframe). Their performance will be reviewed after 11-Sep.

company symbol  % rise today  today's close price
63MOONS 5 85.1
ADVANIHOTR 5.1 47.3
BSLNIFTY 0.4 126
CANBK 8.8 114.8
CANBK-1M 9.3 115.3
DAAWAT 3.7 59.4
FEDERALBNK 7.8 60.5
FEDERALBNK-1M 8.7 60.8
IBULHSGFIN-1M 2.7 225.2
IDEA 14.1 10.1
IDEA-1M 14.6 10.2
IMPAL 1.3 553.8
INDTERRAIN 11.5 35.8
NILAINFRA 8.7 5.6
ONEPOINT 6.4 14.2
PRAENG 9.8 6.8
SPARC 4.3 190.2
SRTRANSFIN-1M 7.4 775.5
SURANASOL 4.9 7.5
UCALFUEL 11 142

Same table as a picture.

I had closed the cineline after 10 in the morning as it tried to rise but failed. Closed with 14% from that stock in two weeks. I could have added more shares along the way but Zerodha was asking about some TOPT saying it got into ASM list. To avoid future hassles of logging in by doing any changes to my account, i avoided. Removed it from my watchlist. It's ok. We can find many stocks day after day. There is no dearth of opportunities in a stable market.

Yesterday I mentioned about COFORGE (NIITTECH renamed) to rise soon, after seeing Zeelearn in yesterday's list. It was up 3.5% afternoon. I made a point in the night to make an entry into it. But forgot it in the morning as my activity is at eod time only. But for the stocks found in these lists in the night, I need to make a note somewhere in a book or a sticky pad to help remember to buy the first thing in the morning. It is not the first time it happened in few days. But as COFORGE is my long term stock too and that's why I had to look into ways to overcome this problem.

It mainly happens because of many stocks in my watchlists which I add and do not remove afterwards. Also for short term trading we see new stocks and old stocks regularly so confusion or forgetting happens. Hence additional notes are required to help act on time. After missing 4% move, I didn't buy it. Better luck next time. It is hard to manage a position when the opportunity point is missed.

INDTERRAIN showed up today. It came two weeks ago and I placed in my watchlist. Not being familiar with this stock, I didn't buy it. Yesterday it rose 4% after <10 days of pullback. I felt the urge to buy it but that 4% made me reluctant. Missed 11% gain today. Nevermind, it shows the validity of this list for 5-25% gains in a 2 week timeframe.

Today IBULHSGFIN showed up (its 1-Month future). Couple of days ago I bought LICHSGFIN as it showed up in Tuesday's list and went up and came to same level on Wednesday. That is a kind of bargain price. Both days it went up and showing 5.5% gain now. I didn't realize then it has options too. The inspiration for this watch list is for potential options trading opportunities. Options make good candidates as they by default embed a stop loss by not falling much when stock falls and rising a lot as stock rises further. That is provided you buy at the money option (not ITM or OTM options). And with a fraction of intended capital, as the whole option price can turn to zero in the worst case.

The big rise in IDEA driven by the AGR dues verdict news correlates to Bhartiairtel and infratel rise too. But it seems IDEA is best in this sector for big % potential. But it is better to avoid for high volatile moves that happen with news. News based trading is something for future study and can drain considerable amount of one's time to wonder if it is worth one's time investment. News based trading is good for full time traders. For working professionals, our way of acting only once a day on the lists prepared in the night, is best suited.

Interesting to note is the huge run up in the banks this week. That too after seeing four banks (not one or two or three) in the list of last Friday. BANKNIFTY itself went up a lot this week and today too, rising more than 3.5%. HDFCBANK didn't rise today which used to be long term bank stock. But Axisbank, icicibank, SBIN and particularly indusindbank had a field run rising expotentially day by day. This list has the advantage to help do some cross-reading of the market. Because I am only picking big moves for the lists. There has to be some significance to that.

There are more things to learn systematically. Seeing bank stock's rise and some differences across stocks this week, I am thinking of posting another kind of market statistic. I traded CIPLA options in the prior week and made profits for two consecutive days and avoided after that seeing no strength and having risen a lot already. At that time sunpharma also appeared to rise and became relatively weak compared to CIPLA. But this week sunpharma is the relative gainer. I didn't notice that because i was observing cipla only, having traded it. SBIN is not the stock one would expect to rise much in a trend. After quarterly results it got into trend. One could just think of it as coming into this list and buy in the middle of 10 days time from the last peak. That would have been 10% on a Nifty stock, very huge to expect as it is a huge potential gain for option trading.

Can such potential NIFTY stock moves be planned from another market statistic? I will do some study and start another statistic of a weekly once type, if there is some pattern in it.

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Thursday, August 27, 2020

Stock Selection List Short Term Study (2 Weeks Timeframe) for 27-Aug-20

Since mid of August, I have started doing this as a study so the readers of this blog can learn along with me. I am also giving valuable list of stocks for quick profit. If anyone bought Kiriindus and Trent on the morning of 25th August as they showed up in 24th August list, they would have gotten a profit of 4-6% by evening.

I got inspired for this selection when I once noticed Indigo on daily chart and next day bought its CE at 9 and sold at 18 after few hours. Later traded TNPL, INFIBEAM, DIAMONDYD, JOCIL, BLISSGVS, ATULAUTO, during mid weeks of August and booked about 5% profit in a short time. Every stock may not rise the very next day. But I observed the potential for a rise in the next 10 days, on few stocks over a historical period of five years. Thus I decided to make such list everyday and trade familiar stocks or observe them for building trading watchlists to grow familiarity to trade later.

Today's short term selection list for short term study (2 weeks timeframe). Their performance will be reviewed after 10-Sep.

company symbol  % rise today  today's close price
AMRUTANJAN 1.3 477.1
ASTRAMICRO 6.2 128.8
AVADHSUGAR 4.3 205.2
BFINVEST 7.6 334.8
BSE 4.8 514.6
CENTRUM 18.6 16.6
DBCORP 2 80.7
DBREALTY 9.6 8
DONEAR 4 31.4
FRETAIL 10.8 130.1
GODFRYPHLP 7.9 1035.5
GUJALKALI 9.4 369.9
HBLPOWER 2.7 17.1
KAMATHOTEL 3.7 35.1
KANSAINER 4.6 498.7
KITEX 6.9 114.1
MAANALU 10.7 74.8
MAWANASUG 4.3 31.4
MURUDCERA 7.2 17.9
SIS 3.3 399.1
TAJGVK 8.4 155.9
ZEELEARN 8.6 16.4

Same table as a picture.

Looks like this week was about finance, hotel, bank and sugar stocks. Avadhsugar is in a good trend. I checked it only today end of the day based on it being in the list three days ago but i was late. It went up 4% already. Kitex and Trent in same sector but Trent is a long term stock than Kitex. Dmart showed up in Tuesday list and Fretail today. Fretail (Big Bazaar) has not recovered back to its previous levels. With more unlocking coming up, it might rise more.

Paint stocks are in uptrend this month. But they are not rising much in %. Seeing Zeelearn I remembered Niittech which is a long term stock. Its name changed to COFORGE and looks like it could rise soon.

I bought cineline 10 days ago. The day after it was at 20% UC, and fell almost half way. Since then I watched it rise a little and pullback. Yesterday I decided to give it one day as it was just the 10th day left. It rose 15% today by the close. For long term inoxleisure is preferable in this sector.

Looks like the beaten down stocks which haven't recovered recently are showing up now. So we need to be careful to avoid getting them into long term portfolios (or staying trapped in them due to loss) unless the fundamentals dictate. It also that means after a bad downtrend, we get to see the best stocks in the first month. Those can be taken up for long term or medium. That way I noticed Tatacomm, sunflag, rpglife, niittech, dixon, alkylamine in the first weeks of April. While I have known the last three from a long time and had in my watchlist anyway, so didn't correlate them to this kind of list. Rather i saw Tatacomm, rpglife and sunflag coming per this list and kept under watch only to see Tatacomm rise from 357 (missed buying by having a limit order at 0.5 less price) to 800 recently. Later tried sunflag from 31 to 39.95. It kept rising with breaks though. There is some difference in these sectors. RPGLIFE too I missed to buy for 0.2 difference at my limit order which jumped 4% in a minute before I could alter order, near 275 levels. Missed its rise to 370. Lesson learned, once you decide to buy a stock, don't bargain with limit order. Place a little larger limit if not market order but get in. Little fluctuation is tolerable from the entry point.

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Wednesday, August 26, 2020

Stock Selection List Short Term Study (2 Weeks Timeframe) for 26-Aug-20

Since mid of August, I have started doing this as a study so the readers of this blog can learn along with me. I am also giving valuable list of stocks for quick profit. If anyone bought Kiriindus and Trent on the morning of 25th August as they showed up in 24th August list, they would have gotten a profit of 4-6% by evening.

I got inspired for this selection when I once noticed Indigo on daily chart and next day bought its CE at 9 and sold at 18 after few hours. Later traded TNPL, INFIBEAM, DIAMONDYD, JOCIL, BLISSGVS, ATULAUTO, during mid weeks of August and booked about 5% profit in a short time. Every stock may not rise the very next day. But I observed the potential for a rise in the next 10 days, on few stocks over a historical period of five years. Thus I decided to make such list everyday and trade familiar stocks or observe them for building trading watchlists to grow familiarity to trade later.

Today's short term selection list for short term study (2 weeks timeframe). Their performance will be reviewed after 9-Sep.

company symbol  % rise today  today's close price
ABCAPITAL 5.4 65.3
ARIHANTSUP 4.8 24.2
BIRLAMONEY 8.2 41.7
BLUEDART 8.8 2210.2
BOMDYEING 6.6 73.6
CAREERP 7.3 155.2
CEATLTD 6.5 941.5
DCM 9.8 21.9
DCMSHRIRAM 8.3 396.9
DHANBANK 16.3 15.4
EMKAY 9.9 54.2
GFLLIMITED 5.2 103.1
GOKUL 9.9 18.3
JCHAC 12.6 2395.3
JMCPROJECT 12.5 60.1
JMFINANCIL 2.2 82.8
LGBBROSLTD 11.2 277.5
POLYCAB 5.7 919.1
SHREERAMA 9.3 6.5
SUPERHOUSE 7.8 107.1
TVSSRICHAK 7 1583.7
UFO 8.9 84.8

Same table as a picture.

There is another benefit from this daily list. It has become like a market statistic of my own. If the list has more than 10 stocks there is no need to worry. It is a stable market. If it gets less than 10 stocks, then we should plan to get out of our holdings and halt trading till broader market stabilizes. By that time Nifty would have pulled back from highs and some global or major bad news would be clearly known.

I concluded this after studying the lists during the January to March timeframe of this year. The list count fluctuated during January and Feb. months. But in March, after second week the counts reduced to less than 10 and there were many days zero stocks showing up.

So in a way it is a good statistic to assess if we should continue to hold the stocks we already bought, buy new stocks or get out before losses become bigger or whatever little profits we can get at that time. However one day exceptions can happen sometimes. Hence we can see if the <10 count happens for 3 consecutive days to decide the trade stop plan.

Today in NIFTY50 we saw auto stocks becoming gainers. I noticed Atul Auto (which came up in the list a week ago) having gained for the last few days. Noticing tatamotors showing >4% gain yesterday with other auto stocks not being gainers, I wondered if Auto stocks would gain today. Sure enough by early morning itself heromotoco, m&m, eichermot were gainers. By end of the day, Tatamotors gained >8% while Heromotocorp too advanced some more from the morning level.

Today Reliance also became a gainer. But from above list, I could not make a pattern. We may not find patterns everyday. In such situations we should not read too much into the data to avoid getting confused.

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Tuesday, August 25, 2020

Stock Selection List Short Term Study (2 Weeks Timeframe) for 25-Aug-20

Since mid of August, I have started doing this as a study so the readers of this blog can learn along with me. I am also giving valuable list of stocks for quick profit. If anyone bought Kiriindus and Trent on the morning of 25th August as they showed up in 24th August list, they would have gotten a profit of 4-6% by evening.

I got inspired for this selection when I once noticed Indigo on daily chart and next day bought its CE at 9 and sold at 18 after few hours. Later traded TNPL, INFIBEAM, DIAMONDYD, JOCIL, BLISSGVS, ATULAUTO, during mid weeks of August and booked about 5% profit in a short time. Every stock may not rise the very next day. But I observed the potential for a rise in the next 10 days, on few stocks over a historical period of five years. Thus I decided to make such list everyday and trade familiar stocks or observe them for building trading watchlists to grow familiarity to trade later.

Today's short term selection list for short term study (2 weeks timeframe). Their performance will be reviewed after 8-Sep.

company symbol  % rise today  today's close price
AMBIKCO 8.8 731.2
ARMANFIN 7.6 529.9
ASAHISONG 6.3 227.3
CANBK 3.1 106.7
DMART 4 2341.2
FINPIPE 8 502.8
GOACARBON 10 242.7
GRAPHITE 10 209.6
HEG 16.4 930.9
IBMFNIFTY 19 139.7
INDIAGLYCO 5.1 310.8
INDOSTAR 6.5 276
KRIDHANINF 4.2 3.8
KSL 1.3 230.6
LICHSGFIN 8.1 299
LICHSGFIN-1M 8.4 299.9
LOTUSEYE 19.4 35
MFSL 12.8 619.9
MFSL-1M 12.5 620.9
PRESSMN 7.3 21.2
RAJTV 8.8 41.4
RALLIS 7.8 325.3
RKDL 9.7 7.9
SELAN 16 135.2
SHANTIGEAR 6.8 97
SHRENIK 5 52.5
SYNGENE 5.5 503.9
VERTOZ 4.9 126.9

Same table as a picture.

I forgot to mention yesterday about banknifty rise. In Sunday's post based on Friday's list, I have mentioned about 4 banks showing up in the list and thus other banks could gain next. Yesterday many top banks gained which is why banknifty had a big gain in a long time. Today also CANBK showed up in the list. BANKNIFTY is still up today. So these few days money is rotating to BANK stocks.

As money gets pumped into stocks, due to lower interest rates, it keeps rotating into stocks that haven't risen much relatively.

Yesterday there was SRIPIPES int he list. Today we have FINPIPE in the list. It can help to note which sector stocks are strongly showing up the list to expect any other stocks of the same sector to rise in the coming days. If you hold other stocks in that sector, you can expect them to rise before deciding to sell them.

Today we also have some financial stocks rising. Bajfinance rose to new high of the last four months. In our list we can see LICHSGFIN and ARMANFIN with 8% gain today. Looks like these are good for big price gain in this sector. There are other finance stocks like PFC that could gain in the coming days.

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Monday, August 24, 2020

Stock Selection List Short Term Study (2 Weeks Timeframe) for 24-Aug-20

Today's short term selection list for short term study (2 weeks timeframe). Their performance will be reviewed after 7-Sep.

I got inspired for this selection when I once noticed Indigo on daily chart and next day bought its CE at 9 and sold at 18 after few hours. Later traded TNPL, INFIBEAM, DIAMONDYD, JOCIL, BLISSGVS, ATULAUTO, during mid weeks of August and booked about 5% profit in a short time. Every stock may not rise the very next day. But I observed the potential for a rise in the next 10 days, on few stocks over a historical period of five years. Thus I decided to make such list everyday and trade familiar stocks or observe them for building trading watchlists to grow familiarity to trade later.
scrip  % change  close price
ALMONDZ 20 12.3
ATFL 20 773
AVTNPL 5.1 46.1
BALMLAWRIE 3.9 121.1
DHANUKA 7.8 856
EXCELINDUS 10.7 921.8
GLOBALVECT 3.7 61.9
KIRIINDUS 8.3 531.5
KOTARISUG 19.8 15.4
MIDHANI 6 223.4
MUTHOOTCAP 7.8 400.6
PSPPROJECT 7.1 440.6
SADBHIN 6.4 18.4
SARLAPOLY 8.1 19.3
SCHAEFFLER 4.8 3661
SRIPIPES 1.3 198.6
STEL 9 66.5
TIMKEN 6.4 1045.3
TRENT 2.8 622.8
UTISENSETF 1.6 411.6
ZOTA 3.3 145.4
ZYDUSWELL 4.4 1692.3

Same table as a picture.

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Sunday, August 23, 2020

Stock Selection List Short Term Study (2 Weeks Timeframe) for 21-Aug-20

I got inspired for this selection when I once noticed Indigo on daily chart and next day bought its CE at 9 and sold at 18 after few hours. Later traded TNPL, INFIBEAM, DIAMONDYD, JOCIL, BLISSGVS, ATULAUTO, during mid weeks of August and booked about 5% profit in a short time. Every stock may not rise the very next day. But I observed the potential for a rise in the next 10 days, on few stocks over a historical period of five years. Thus I decided to make such list everyday and trade familiar stocks or observe them for building trading watchlists to grow familiarity to trade later.

Today's short term selection list for short term study (2 weeks timeframe). Their performance will be reviewed after 4-Sep.

scrip  % change  close price
AAVAS 4.9 1443
AGRITECH 4.7 34.3
AIAENG 3.9 1751.8
AVADHSUGAR 5.5 196.9
BASF 20 1619.8
BASML 5.8 98.3
BHEL-1M 6.1 40.9
COCHINSHIP 5.3 359.8
DHAMPURSUG 5.7 147.4
FLEXITUFF 4.6 7.9
FLFL 2.1 132.7
GALLANTT 8.9 34.4
GALLISPAT 3.5 29.9
GEECEE 8.3 79.8
GMRINFRA 9.5 24.3
GMRINFRA-1M 9.6 24.4
HIRECT 5 144.8
IDBI 9.9 43.3
INDIANCARD 20 116.9
J&KBANK 6.7 18.3
JAYAGROGN 5 98.8
JUBILANT 4.4 828
KKCL 11.4 846.8
KTKBANK 6.8 47
LAOPALA 0.9 201.8
LINCPEN 8.6 183.6
NRBBEARING 5.9 85.5
PAGEIND 6.9 20304.9
PAGEIND-1M 6.8 20338.5
PIONEEREMB 16.7 25.9
PODDARMENT 6.1 202.7
PONNIERODE 7.2 178.8
PRECAM 6.8 36.3
PREMEXPLN 5 135.8
PREMIERPOL 8.1 25.9
PSUBNKBEES 2.5 16.4
PUNJABCHEM 5.8 520.8
SELAN 9 121.2
SSWL 9.5 475.4
SUNDRMBRAK 8.3 252.4
SYMPHONY 6.7 893
UGARSUGAR 5.2 15.1
VINATIORGA 5.9 1053.7
VLSFINANCE 2.8 56.2

Same table as a picture.

I am beginning to realize that with this many number of stocks getting filtered daily, it will be ridiculous to practically implement it. Filtering some stocks from this becomes dependent on another criteria, diluting the purpose of this filter.

So it is reasonable to first have a list of 100 or 200 stocks all of which are filtered based on some criteria, either fundamental or technical. Technical is more suited for short term trading. One such criteria can be the large price swing a stock does in its prior 3 year history. Stocks tend to repeat price action. It is reasonable to expect a large price swing with this filter provided it has done such moves in the past.

Although some of these might move by big % first time, it will be difficult to find such stocks out of so many. That might require following some news, events related to the company or simply earnings calendar.

Both can also be combined. As this is a start, I am thinking it is better to first start with a set of 50 stocks and apply this filter. This way there could be days without anyone getting filtered. That is good, actually. Because for this 2 week timeframe, once we buy a stock, we can't buy another till 2 weeks is over. So it becomes realistic to implement.

Moreover I realized that there is no need to test this in real time. As this is filtering is purely technical, for last several months or even years, such list can be filtered for every day and then study their performance after the said short term timeframe as a back testing. That gives a clear idea if it is worth doing such filtering at all or if a secondary filter is required to pick any stocks from it. I will do back testing study soon and post results from it.

It is also possible that this list helps to know which sector stocks are rising each day and so each week. That helps a trader pick a familiar stock from that sector and trade for short term.

For example, this day with a simple glance into the table we can see that 3 sugar stocks (AVADHSUGAR, DHAMPURSUG, UGARSUGAR) have gained more than 5%. Also 4 banks and one bank etf have gained more than 5%. They are IDBI, J&KBANK, KTKBANK, SUNDRMBRAK and etf is PSUBNKBEES. There are other bank and sugar stocks which if didn't rise today or not at all this week, they could potentiall rise next week. So this data could help in that way too.

I did not post this data on 17th as I started studying this very recently. The 17th Aug data showed NTPC, SUNTV and TVTODAY. Noticing two TV stocks, I correlated that late but >6% jump in these two tv stocks to be after a conccurent rise in ZEEL for two weeks prior to that. And ZEEL made big rise on 19th. NTPC did consolidate for two days after 17th and rose from 95 on Wednesday to 106 on Friday.

This filter obviously has the potential for catching moves in the middle of a trend. However it could filter huge list of stocks from which many may not continue the rise before falling back. So this data might be useful as an information as well, if not a direct filter, as explained above.

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