Stock Selection List for Short Term Study (2 Weeks Timeframe) from 30-Sep-20

Since mid of August, I have started doing this as a study so the readers of this blog can learn along with me. I am also giving valuable list of stocks for quick profit. If anyone bought Kiriindus and Trent on the morning of 25th August as they showed up in 24th August list, they would have gotten a profit of 4-6% by evening.

I got inspired for this selection when I once noticed Indigo on daily chart and next day bought its CE at 9 and sold at 18 after few hours. Later traded TNPL, INFIBEAM, DIAMONDYD, JOCIL, BLISSGVS, ATULAUTO, during mid weeks of August and booked about 5% profit in a short time. Every stock may not rise the very next day. But I observed the potential for a rise in the next 10 days, on few stocks over a historical period of five years. Thus I decided to make such list everyday and trade familiar stocks or observe them for building trading watchlists to grow familiarity to trade later.

Today's short term selection list for short term study (2 weeks timeframe). Their performance will be reviewed after 14-Oct along with two weeks lists at one time.

Today's primary list has only 9 stocks showing up.

company symbol today's close price % rise today avg volume

ALPA 30.6 5 155728

DTIL 259.6 4.6 22590

GRSE 216.3 13.1 396864

JAYBARMARU 226.6 2 63662

LINCPEN 179.8 3.1 9074

MAHICKRA 80 5.4 10770

SPAL 134.3 20 106448

TWL 47.5 7.7 484453

VIMTALABS 118.9 5 293672

Same table as a picture.

In the secondary list we got 39 stocks.

company symbol today's close price % rise today avg volume

AARTIDRUGS 771.3 -73.8 1762439

ALPA 30.6 5 155728

ASTRAL 1224.8 6 179142

BEDMUTHA 18.4 2.2 11231

BHAGYANGR 18.5 2.8 11398

CGCL 235.7 5.6 153882

CGPOWER 23.9 4.4 9226036

CHAMBLFERT 157.8 1.8 1207863

CROMPTON 292.4 4.8 856650

DTIL 259.6 4.6 22590

DYNPRO 261.7 7 308753

ELGIEQUIP 121.3 1.9 256349

ENDURANCE 1152.3 3.9 94117

FMGOETZE 426.8 7.7 10461

GFLLIMITED 95.5 3.1 50470

GODREJCP 725 2.8 1327131

GRSE 216.3 13.1 396864

GSS 32.9 7.7 375107

HIMATSEIDE 91.5 7.5 704616

JAYBARMARU 226.6 2 63662

JHS 22.6 4.9 112520

KEC 344.5 1.5 498791

KRBL 289.9 1.5 369362

LINCPEN 179.8 3.1 9074

MAHICKRA 80 5.4 10770

MPHASIS 1383.5 5 569106

NAVINFLUOR 2202.3 5.3 143896

NH 358 3.4 236971

OPTIEMUS 56.4 4.9 54920

SALASAR 198.9 4.1 39424

SHALBY 87.7 2.5 278518

SOLARA 1076.1 6.4 232612

SPAL 134.3 20 106448

SUMMITSEC 406.4 2.1 3027

TITAN 1201.3 2.9 3405776

TWL 47.5 7.7 484453

UNITY 1.1 4.8 29448

URJA 3.2 4.9 1866621

VIMTALABS 118.9 5 293672

Same table as a picture.

Commentary:

Today TIPSINDLTD had a good fall of 8%. Kept it in my watch list. As there is no event or news affecting the markets it is simply going up and down indecisively. After a couple of weeks a direction comes out.

Today's list got some stocks like LINCPEN. It is a small cap I once tried for BTST trading. Buy today and sell tomorrow. It didn't work actually. Later I averaged it and got out with profits after noticing its price pattern on charts. It behaves like a good small cap stock that steadily tries to break out two times and breaks out third time with big % gain in a single day. Then I get out. However it is not good in the long run.

Many stocks are falling from one range to another range, always lower than the previous range as time passed since the last two years. Our govt. doesn't encourage long term investing. Even earlier govt. too ruined the reputation with Vodafone tax case for more than a decade. With LTCG tax, no encouragement from budgets, GST saga, demonetization event, businesses are simply struggling to conduct their own business.

Hence for long term investing one has to pick only growth stocks or value stocks and preferably on pullbacks or do SIP. The companies that can bounce back due to lack of debt on balance sheets are also good for long term SIP. Given long enough time some good news will come, provided company doesn't goof up on its own in that time period. Debt is like a ticking time bomb that ruins even the best managed businesses.

For BTST trading, the hit rates are not so good. But when following ORB strategy few months ago, i felt sometimes BTST is possible. I will study data if some pattern can be found for BTST trading setups.

As market becomes stable, day after day more and more stocks will start showing up. Usually the laggers show up late. Those should be taken as exit opportunities.

Over time I am beginning to realize that the only short term trading worth from this is the jackpot type. Like that to be done in TIPSINDLTD. Timeframe should not be fixed. But one need to take chances for such moves. We need to see some fundamentals, check for fraud or rumors of such thing, any recent news, future expectation and quarterly result trend. Keeping these in mind, we can take chances. Even if we our success ratio is 33%, we could still make good gain as one gaining trade offsets the losses of two. For that the 2 week timeframe is perfect exit point. Because once we are in, a momentum stock will not stop for that much time and keeps rising.

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Stock Selection List for Short Term Study (2 Weeks Timeframe) from 29-Sep-20

"My dog is so lazy. He doesn't chase cars, he just sits on the kerb, taking down license plate numbers."

- Rodney Dangerfield

Since mid of August, I have started doing this as a study so the readers of this blog can learn along with me. I am also giving valuable list of stocks for quick profit. If anyone bought Kiriindus and Trent on the morning of 25th August as they showed up in 24th August list, they would have gotten a profit of 4-6% by evening.

I got inspired for this selection when I once noticed Indigo on daily chart and next day bought its CE at 9 and sold at 18 after few hours. Later traded TNPL, INFIBEAM, DIAMONDYD, JOCIL, BLISSGVS, ATULAUTO, during mid weeks of August and booked about 5% profit in a short time. Every stock may not rise the very next day. But I observed the potential for a rise in the next 10 days, on few stocks over a historical period of five years. Thus I decided to make such list everyday and trade familiar stocks or observe them for building trading watchlists to grow familiarity to trade later.

Today's short term selection list for short term study (2 weeks timeframe). Their performance will be reviewed after 13-Oct along with two weeks lists at one time.

Today's primary list has 13 stocks showing up.

company symbol today's close price % rise today avg volume

GATI 57 15.1 706962

GUFICBIO 92.4 13.7 357121

IZMO 34.6 1.6 24844

KANORICHEM 41.8 7.2 69210

KPRMILL 667.2 11.1 67959

KRISHANA 60 4.3 1954

NETF 135 3.1 1023

PFOCUS 41.4 10 95757

RAMASTEEL 41.4 3.1 11169

SNOWMAN 35.4 5.8 633468

TARMAT 42.4 5 21280

TRIGYN 52.1 4.9 91909

WELINV 258.4 4.3 1293

Same table as a picture.

In the secondary list we got 43 stocks.

company symbol today's close price % rise today avg volume

AMBER 2072.5 1.8 350535

ASTRON 47.2 5.9 64414

BLISSGVS 160.5 6 841929

CEATLTD 995 5 231612

CREDITACC 722.1 2.9 133438

DCW 15.3 0.7 765331

DSSL 30.1 4 12558

GANGESSECU 47.6 18.2 8262

GATI 57 15.1 706962

GOKEX 62.6 4 297412

GRAPHITE 196.3 2.2 836162

GUFICBIO 92.4 13.7 357121

HEROMOTOCO 3174.9 2.8 1560544

ICRA 2816.7 0.6 3571

IDFC 32.8 3 10663666

IEX 209.4 4.8 1493954

IZMO 34.6 1.6 24844

JASH 186 3.6 13591

JINDRILL 76.3 5 16039

KANORICHEM 41.8 7.2 69210

KPRMILL 667.2 11.1 67959

KRISHANA 60 4.3 1954

MADHUCON 3 3.5 21088

MMFL 333.6 1.7 35798

NETF 135 3.1 1023

PAPERPROD 301.6 3.6 285886

PFOCUS 41.4 10 95757

PHILIPCARB 130.7 2.7 1659056

RAMASTEEL 41.4 3.1 11169

RESPONIND 104.1 3.2 379301

ROSSELLIND 157.3 5 35464

SIEMENS 1260.1 1.1 780279

SINTERCOM 76.9 2.5 7560

SNOWMAN 35.4 5.8 633468

SOFTTECH 64 0.9 10144

SPECIALITY 36.6 1.4 121843

SUBROS 262.8 9.1 125651

TARMAT 42.4 5 21280

TCS 2488.4 2.6 4341995

TIRUMALCHM 78.8 5.7 904502

TRIGYN 52.1 4.9 91909

VSSL 80 3.8 10296

WELINV 258.4 4.3 1293

Same table as a picture.

Commentary:

You could be wondering why TIPSINDLTD doesn't show up again today despite rising 14% today. It really has a fantastic rise and I noted it for jackpot trading. Few others that missed to trade in such a way are tanla, lasa, iolcp, granules, marksans. To note such stocks again, it is important to continue the daily review and note the best performing stocks. Or atleast once a week getting a review 5 day's lists at one time also helps to note stocks so they could be bought on pullback.

In these lists, stocks show up on the way up with potentially some more room for uptrend. Once it comes into the list, it could go to heaven but not show up here. All those stocks that did such rise like Aartidrugs, tanla, lasa would surely come into this list early on. With a trending trading strategy one would make the most of them buying steadily on pullbacks and holding if it doesn't fall too much.

The same stock could show up again only if it had a pullback like TIPSINDLTD did due to broader market fall. If it is stock specific, we need to check news. The news will be clear once the selling is over. The old adage saying "buy the rumor, sell the news" will always work. When it is not clear what is the news, better to stay put and not do anything. Without knowing anything it is easy to get trapped.

Today I see two nifty stocks in the secondary list. TCS and Heromotoco. Something good is expected in them. These can be watched to buy their options on pullback. TCS would have quarterly results soon (in two weeks). An upmove two weeks before quarterly results is common.

Today NIFTY touched MA level with over excitement at the open with a gap at the open and continued to fall. Rest of the day there isn't much momentum. Due to lack of news. The sentiment is looking like the market will fall into a downward sloping channel. Technical analysis works well for few days of trading before some news comes out. I guess that would be in another seven days. Already three days passed since the lowest level.

Stocks showing up in these lists shows that we don't have very bad crash (yet) like the March time. It is more like the January/February time. However I don't expect March type of crash simply because we had some big stimulus announcements around the world after March mayhem. It is not reversed. So we won't go to those lows. However we might touch the mid point from the recent peak to that bottom, if some bad news come out. Or nothing comes out. In the latter case, it will be field days for swing traders and technical traders as the market works well for them when there are no major events happening.

For traders who trade breakouts it will be a period of whipsaws. And 2/3rd of the time markets will be like that only. We had a good period of breakouts for 4 months or so. Another 8 months of whipsaws is due. Atleast a four month break from breakouts. Let us see how things go.

Meanwhile one should only focus on buying good companies on dips. It is a buy on dips market. Many companies' valuations are sky high. What happened with HAL and GMMP Faudler can happen with any stock. They were doing quite well. Then the stake sale announcements ruined the party.

HAL went upto 1200. I bought at 712 one day and after two days sold at 798. Within next ten days after few days of break, it kept going up again and again till 1200 levels. I didn't buy it after that. Then govt. announced stake sale price at 1050. It gapped down to 1030. Then it kept falling never rising above 1000 again. Now below 798.

GMMP Faudler has PE ratio more than 130 having risen from 80 levels to 6000 levels in the last 12 years. Its business is doing good. So no issues there. But the promoters planned to takeover their parent business as that helps them grow further. But for that money they decided to sell stake. They announced it just a day before and the stock got stuck at LC. It has low volumes, low float. From 5200 it kept falling to 3500. 3500 was sale offer price. Now after breaching that level today, it jumped to UC. One can wonder what kind of market is this? The business is good. Earnings are only growing. So one need not worry doing SIP on it. Buying it on dips is always a good idea till the fundamentals change in a big way. That takes some big event anyway.

Similarly other companies are also realizing that this drama of the market falling badly one month, then rising too much non-stop in later five months, is giving a second opportunity for stake sales in an economy that is cash-strapped due to bad banking system. When such news comes out the same investors who kept buying stocks even at peak levels, will not give support after a sale price level is announced. One should only buy on pullbacks.

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Stock Selection List for Short Term Study (2 Weeks Timeframe) from 28-Sep-20

Since mid of August, I have started doing this as a study so the readers of this blog can learn along with me. I am also giving valuable list of stocks for quick profit. If anyone bought Kiriindus and Trent on the morning of 25th August as they showed up in 24th August list, they would have gotten a profit of 4-6% by evening.

I got inspired for this selection when I once noticed Indigo on daily chart and next day bought its CE at 9 and sold at 18 after few hours. Later traded TNPL, INFIBEAM, DIAMONDYD, JOCIL, BLISSGVS, ATULAUTO, during mid weeks of August and booked about 5% profit in a short time. Every stock may not rise the very next day. But I observed the potential for a rise in the next 10 days, on few stocks over a historical period of five years. Thus I decided to make such list everyday and trade familiar stocks or observe them for building trading watchlists to grow familiarity to trade later.

Today's short term selection list for short term study (2 weeks timeframe). Their performance will be reviewed after 12-Oct along with two weeks lists at one time.

Today's list got 10 stocks.

company symbol today's close price % rise today avg volume

AEGISCHEM 239.3 6.3 413726

ARSHIYA 12.8 4.9 43085

AUSOMENT 51.1 19.9 19008

CEBBCO 17.5 9.7 71454

CONTROLPR 240.9 7.6 43010

KABRAEXTRU 72.2 14.5 47510

MATRIMONY 628.3 10 40546

NOCIL 144.2 11.9 2371184

PFIZER 5017.1 2 72530

TIPSINDLTD 295.1 20 62863

Same table as a picture.

In the secondary list we got 58 stocks. Because we had good market rally today.

company symbol today's close price % rise today avg volume

AARTIDRUGS 3038.8 3 435748

ADANIENT 295.7 5.5 8497145

AEGISCHEM 239.3 6.3 413726

ANANTRAJ 31.8 5.8 382907

ARSHIYA 12.8 4.9 43085

AUSOMENT 51.1 19.9 19008

BALKRISIND 1447.7 6.8 809298

BIOCON 450.4 5.2 5634298

BIOFILCHEM 49.4 5 53340

CDSL 493.5 4.1 2229311

CEBBCO 17.5 9.7 71454

CHOLAFIN 248.8 4.3 7817251

COLPAL 1440.9 1.8 732478

COMPINFO 15.6 7.6 181134

CONTROLPR 240.9 7.6 43010

DEEPAKNTR 838.5 4.7 1934355

ESCORTS 1295.6 7.7 2655064

EXPLEOSOL 524 5 29403

FDC 365.4 9.2 744358

GARFIBRES 2112.2 6.3 30975

GODREJCP 713.3 1.6 1275108

HAVELLS 684.5 3.9 1980388

HIKAL 184.8 6.1 1934624

JBCHEPHARM 1018 6.3 632464

KABRAEXTRU 72.2 14.5 47510

KAJARIACER 520.9 4.2 374522

LAURUSLABS 1460.8 10 2199194

LFIC 57.6 1.9 2443

LINCOLN 263.8 4.1 384908

LUXIND 1428.1 1.6 81142

MAHINDCIE 144.2 7.8 354060

MATRIMONY 628.3 10 40546

MCX 1786.6 9.2 512758

MEGH 81.4 5 2718674

MPHASIS 1350.5 6.2 563406

NAUKRI 3575.6 3.6 468085

NCC 35.5 4.7 12911738

NEULANDLAB 1142 6.4 238978

NOCIL 144.2 11.9 2371184

PAGEIND 20617.8 4.7 54234

PALASHSECU 34.3 3.9 2550

PANAMAPET 58.3 7.4 128491

PFIZER 5017.1 2 72530

QUICKHEAL 162.1 9.4 856603

RATNAMANI 1244.8 3.6 17779

RPGLIFE 406.3 4.4 150161

SAKAR 77.3 3 27896

SAREGAMA 567 0.6 43288

SEAMECLTD 430.7 9.5 22363

SEQUENT 158.6 8.4 2075710

STAR 707.5 7 1986442

SUPREMEENG 19.4 4.9 69120

SYMPHONY 910 6 55769

TIPSINDLTD 295.1 20 62863

TVSMOTOR 471.4 5.5 3091912

VAIBHAVGBL 1889.1 4.4 34880

VOLTAS 689.1 2.9 2269363

VTL 822 5.7 32180

Same table as a picture.

Commentary:

In the first list we got TIPSINDLTD at UC. AUSOMENT is already in my watchlist. But I missed trading TIPSINDLTD though I said I will trade. Because I wanted to keep my market exposure limited in a negative sentiment market. In case it falls a lot more, given that now FIIs are also actively selling day after day, I need to have capital ready to scale up towards the end of the downtrend. Or atleast avoid getting stuck only to wait for a long time to exit from stocks whose future might change making it a potentially long waiting time. If I have capital, I can put that into stocks that show up in the lists after a major crash. The current exposure can be held till their recover.

One point here is due to conflict in my plans I missed to trade. One plan was to trade TIPSINDLTD as it was the highlight trade from these lists that gave 50% return in 10 days after showing up in the list. No problem. I will try again next time. This is a small cap with <300cr market cap which also made me put the plan on hold till the market stabilizes. But actually momentum stocks, trending stocks are a buy when they fall in broader market fall. They are to be avoided when there is company specific news. If you keep this in mind, you will avoid unnecessary stop losses and won't miss opportunity to buy good stocks on pullback.

The secondary list indicates that those stocks have not yet entered downtrend. Incase one is holding those stocks, one can hold for more time. In case market stabilizes from here, these will continue uptrend for some more time.

Today I want to mention something I learned from observation from many years. The market gives opportunity for everyone to make profits and everyone to make losses. Every strategy will have scenarios where it works and scenario where it doesn't work. We should identify and recognize the scenarios where it doesn't work and scale down trading or avoid. No need to regret some missed trades. Otherwise even stop losses can hurt by having a chain of stop losses eroding a lot of capital gains.

It is especially so for the recent trend in traders wanting to move to short term trading. Because of the failure in long term trading, there are many people showing great profits in short term trading to lure people to invest in their tutorials, trainings or workshops. Those short term gains are achieved by finding high probability setups and trading with leverage (futures and options). Even those can have vulnerable times. But the business of training/workshops doesn't need to show all that. In a good market period, people will make profits and show that as proof to lure traders to buy their tutorials, subscribe to their trainings and so on. Once a period is over, there is nothing to worry for the trainers. In the next period, there will be a fresh batch of traders coming into the market who don't know what happened in the history. They will subscribe the next time.

In our country we have a big batch of students passing out every year after graduation. They are all going to start some job, many of them get frustrated with menial work in entry level jobs very soon and start looking for other avenues. In some IT service companies, engineers are put on bench till they are picked up a client for a project. Till then they have to spend time. With training, learning or any other way. They even get encouraged to open demat accounts and try their hand at trading. This is all a big market that is growing now. With it we see many traders-turned-trainers opening up youtube & telegram channels.

There is nothing wrong in taking up these trainings, as you could potentially save time. But don't miss the importance of developing your own intuition. That is more important than anything else. But anything else gets very well along with intuition. So its all a bonus learning when you have intuition to understand market phase, rhythm of market movement, etc.

If you liked this post, please check any of the Reaction boxes below and subscribe to this blog or follow by adding email on the right side of the blog. If you want to post any questions or share thoughts, feel free to add comments below.

Read the disclaimer on the right side of this blog (in desktop mode) before making any investment/trading decisions.

Continue reading...

Stock Selection List for Short Term Study (2 Weeks Timeframe) from 25-Sep-20

Since mid of August, I have started doing this as a study so the readers of this blog can learn along with me. I am also giving valuable list of stocks for quick profit. If anyone bought Kiriindus and Trent on the morning of 25th August as they showed up in 24th August list, they would have gotten a profit of 4-6% by evening.

I got inspired for this selection when I once noticed Indigo on daily chart and next day bought its CE at 9 and sold at 18 after few hours. Later traded TNPL, INFIBEAM, DIAMONDYD, JOCIL, BLISSGVS, ATULAUTO, during mid weeks of August and booked about 5% profit in a short time. Every stock may not rise the very next day. But I observed the potential for a rise in the next 10 days, on few stocks over a historical period of five years. Thus I decided to make such list everyday and trade familiar stocks or observe them for building trading watchlists to grow familiarity to trade later.

Today's short term selection list for short term study (2 weeks timeframe). Their performance will be reviewed after 9-Oct along with two weeks lists at one time.

Today's list got 5 stocks only.

company symbol today's close price % rise today avg volume

IFBIND 616.5 12.4 181087

MUKANDLTD 42.4 5 71022

SUPPETRO 241.3 9.5 60769

THANGAMAYL 421.3 17.8 108930

TIIL 359.6 6.4 15471

Same table as a picture.

In the secondary list we got 47 stocks. Because we had good market rally today.

company symbol today's close price % rise today avg volume

ADFFOODS 418 5 147807

ALLCARGO 128.9 6 545405

ANUP 595.3 10 19791

APLAPOLLO 2678.3 4.7 100295

ASTRAZEN 4301.6 2.1 117983

BERGEPAINT 582.3 1.3 1641079

BSOFT 190.8 4 3670003

BUTTERFLY 245.4 5 153760

COFORGE 2304.3 9 586297

DCW 15.3 2.7 765531

DSSL 29.2 2.6 12538

ELECTCAST 17.8 1.7 911573

EXCELINDUS 936.5 4.5 48426

GAEL 217.3 7 167518

GRANULES 375.9 4.3 5377862

ICIL 95.6 8.6 552603

IFBIND 616.5 12.4 181087

INDORAMA 23.1 5 34577

INDSWFTLTD 3.6 4.3 18460

INFY 1011.5 3.7 10161880

INTELLECT 205.2 2.7 329410

JASH 180.7 4.1 13746

JUBLFOOD 2314.2 2.3 1140019

KINGFA 499.6 6.3 14560

KOPRAN 83.5 5 537322

MANALIPETC 30.2 11.9 1307342

MINDTREE 1268.9 1.7 1152438

MMFL 344.4 10.7 36487

MUKANDLTD 42.4 5 71022

NATCOPHARM 886.7 4.1 729209

NEWGEN 222.9 6.1 125256

OMKARCHEM 7.8 4 26678

PUNJABCHEM 624 2.8 15328

SABTN 1.5 3.6 8470

SOMANYCERA 180.7 7 147985

SPAL 114.5 5.7 93971

SUBEX 11.7 4.9 1567908

SUPPETRO 241.3 9.5 60769

SURYAROSNI 194.2 4.9 204640

TANLA 261.6 2 764510

TATAELXSI 1266.5 6.6 593053

THANGAMAYL 421.3 17.8 108930

TIIL 359.6 6.4 15471

UNITY 1.1 5 30078

VEDL 137.1 4 19618281

VINATIORGA 1276.3 9.8 263824

ZYDUSWELL 1865 2.3 69561

Same table as a picture.

Commentary:

COFORGE showed up on 22-September list. I am still holding it in my long term trading portfolio. It had its biggest move in a while and also among the IT stocks. In the recent downtrend, only pharma and IT stocks showed some reluctance to fall. Because these are the two sectors that are doing fine in this covid-19 lockdown period.

So knowing a basic idea of how sectors are getting affected and picking the best performing stock in those sectors, one can invest for a larger timeframe. For long term or medium term, till things change and other sectors get favor for another big event later on.

I got an idea today. As Pharma and IT stocks did recently while the market was falling, it overall wasn't too much of a gain due to rise/fall/rise/fall/rise kind of swings, perhaps ORB strategy might do good in those stocks. ORB's flagshit stock is Eicher Motors. But for today's rally it had double whammy. Though it went up by eod, it did a whipsaw before that. That would have led to two stop loss trades and end of trading for the day before lunch time. At the same time, CIPLA would have given a fantastic 3% gain on capital today. Or HCLTECH would have lead to 1.5% without stop loss. But other IT stocks and DRREDDY (that went up a lot recently) would have given double whammy today. Anyway it is better to look at actual data over the two weeks period and study that.

The secondary list is showing that these stocks were to quickly get back from the falls. In case market doesn't fall to new lows from here, these stocks would be good opportunity for short term trading. So I hold COFORGE. In case I sell, I would buy on pullbacks or dips as they say.

If you liked this post, please check any of the Reaction boxes below and subscribe to this blog or follow by adding email on the right side of the blog. If you want to post any questions or share thoughts, feel free to add comments below.

Read the disclaimer on the right side of this blog (in desktop mode) before making any investment/trading decisions.

Continue reading...

Stock Selection List for Short Term Study (2 Weeks Timeframe) from 24-Sep-20

Since mid of August, I have started doing this as a study so the readers of this blog can learn along with me. I am also giving valuable list of stocks for quick profit. If anyone bought Kiriindus and Trent on the morning of 25th August as they showed up in 24th August list, they would have gotten a profit of 4-6% by evening.

I got inspired for this selection when I once noticed Indigo on daily chart and next day bought its CE at 9 and sold at 18 after few hours. Later traded TNPL, INFIBEAM, DIAMONDYD, JOCIL, BLISSGVS, ATULAUTO, during mid weeks of August and booked about 5% profit in a short time. Every stock may not rise the very next day. But I observed the potential for a rise in the next 10 days, on few stocks over a historical period of five years. Thus I decided to make such list everyday and trade familiar stocks or observe them for building trading watchlists to grow familiarity to trade later.

Today's short term selection list for short term study (2 weeks timeframe). Their performance will be reviewed after 8-Oct along with two weeks lists at one time.

Today's list got 3 stocks only.

company symbol today's close price % rise today avg volume

ADANIGREEN 617 4.9 1738825

ADVENZYMES 273.1 20 883720

PEARLPOLY 19.7 4.8 15740

Same table as a picture.

In the secondary list we got 6 stocks.

company symbol today's close price % rise today avg volume

ADANIGREEN 617 4.9 1738825

ADVENZYMES 273.1 20 883720

AHLWEST 286.1 2.2 1860

BEPL 64.5 2.5 1004939

PEARLPOLY 19.7 4.8 15740

WELSPUNIND 59.4 1.3 1703865

Same table as a picture.

Commentary:

As the sentiment hasn't changed decisively to the positive side, any negative news is having an impact. Before the sentiment change, negative news was shrugged off. Stocks went up despite posting bad quarterly results. This is what always happens in the market. Knowing the underlying sentiment is very useful for taking action and holding positions with confidence.

It is said that there are no resistances in bull markets and no supports in bear markets. The markets won't go in a straight line. But with pullbacks in bull markets and retracements (rallies) in bear markets. We should not be afraid of pullbacks in bull markets. Any recent support or moving average (MA) level will hold as support for the pullback and the market continues uptrend from there. Hence one can easily add more to one's position's and make a good gain with reduced average price. We cannot do the same once the sentiment has changed to negative. The more we average down, the bigger the loss becomes on subsequent falls.

We had Indo-China Border tensions recently over the weekend of August 30 that we saw big market crash on August 31. But if we remember similar thing happened in the mid of June as well. The markets indeed fell at that time but found support and continued in a trend within no time.

Just watching news alone is not sufficient. We need to also see how the market is reacting to the news. The markets have some thresholds like humans have. We can illustrate that with the concept of hysteresis that we have in electrical/electronic engineering.

Hysteresis is the dependence of the state of a system on its history. If we recently had sentiment change from positive to negative it won't easily change back to positive just by announcing something equal and opposite to the event that caused the sentiment change. It takes a lot more. The threshold for making the sentiment change is more. That is why what was once a good opportunity at one time in the market won't be the same at another time once tables have turned around.

A simple example for this the valuation of Yahoo!. In February 2008, Microsoft tried to acquire Yahoo for $45 billion. But Yahoo rejected it saying it is undervalued. Later in 2017, after 9 years, Verizon acquired Yahoo for $4.5 billion (for one tenth the value). What an irony!

I am citing this example to understand two points. One is the hysteresis part. That is for status quo to change, something big has to happen that should be more than what has lead to the current state in the first place. However as time passes, more and more events happen, their impact gets accumulate though market state doesn't change. But at one point it suddenly changes making everyone wonder what happened all of sudden. Many people affected by recency bias would have accustomed to market not changing for any news or event and shrug off an opportunity to detect a change and adapt when the rest of the market does slowly. For novice traders it will take time to follow. They have their own threshold that makes them lag so much when they eventually decide to change, the market turns around again and they will be trapped. This vicious cycle continues. Hence it is important to notice how the market reacts to news and whether things are turning around or not.

Another point is that the market needs to be treated as a financial market not as an asset or property. The valuations game is a dangerous game to play. Today a company gets valued at some level and another day it will be valued at a different level. These valuations will keep changing in cycles. If we initiated positions into a stock at some levels and averaged it in a down cycle, then we should get out with a profit, zero profit or minimum loss in the following reverse cycle (rally) before things change again. If we miss that we may not get another chance at such level. In some stocks though, we will get much higher value. In some we don't. Good stocks hardly fall and they reverse very soon after fall. They fall very late in a downtrend, that too reluctantly as if they didn't want to fall. So growth stocks will look like they made 'V' shape sometimes on a chart. Stocks of poor performing companies do opposite. They stay low most of the time. Keep falling very early. Rise very late into the bull market that they reverse and fall soon after. They show inverted V shape on their chart.

If we are doing SIP on a stock, if it is growth type that we didn't lower prices as we do SIP, then we should not be afraid of 'V' shape fall. Once 'V' shape is confirmed we should keep holding it. We should also not try to time the SIPs, as the time duration they spend at lower prices is less, we won't be able to anyway reduce the average price. This happened with my Divislab SIP from last year.

If we are doing SIP on a poor performing stock (not too bad, but prices don't gain despite having good fundamentals), then we should keep doing SIP. Our average price keeps reducing with time. But one time or other in a long time, they make a big bold move. We need to set some realistic price target observing the broader market sentiment and get out with profit before it is too late. One can sell half to book half the profit and let the other half stay if the stock were to continue to rise. This is the way I used to do SIPs historically since 2013. Morepenlab is the simplest example of it. Last year it was below 20 and kept falling. Despite falling to as low as 7.7 in March this year, it went up above 30 afterwards. An SIP with average of 16 for a year, would have easily given 90% profit! Now the price is no longer there. It is at 22 again. It could fall more in the months ahead.

These are the two topics I wanted to post today.

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Stock Selection List for Short Term Study (2 Weeks Timeframe) from 23-Sep-20

Since mid of August, I have started doing this as a study so the readers of this blog can learn along with me. I am also giving valuable list of stocks for quick profit. If anyone bought Kiriindus and Trent on the morning of 25th August as they showed up in 24th August list, they would have gotten a profit of 4-6% by evening.

I got inspired for this selection when I once noticed Indigo on daily chart and next day bought its CE at 9 and sold at 18 after few hours. Later traded TNPL, INFIBEAM, DIAMONDYD, JOCIL, BLISSGVS, ATULAUTO, during mid weeks of August and booked about 5% profit in a short time. Every stock may not rise the very next day. But I observed the potential for a rise in the next 10 days, on few stocks over a historical period of five years. Thus I decided to make such list everyday and trade familiar stocks or observe them for building trading watchlists to grow familiarity to trade later.

Today's short term selection list for short term study (2 weeks timeframe). Their performance will be reviewed after 7-Oct along with two weeks lists at one time.

Today's list got '2' stocks.

company symbol today's close price % rise today avg volume

CYBERTECH 65.7 12.1 195089

MAHINDCIE 139.3 5.6 349071

Same table as a picture.

In the secondary list we got 18 stocks.

company symbol today's close price % rise today avg volume

ADFFOODS 413.4 1.5 145607

AUSOMENT 42.9 3.1 17146

BIGBLOC 51.7 5 10410

BLUEDART 2788.2 4.1 70598

CDSL 479.6 9.5 2160459

CYBERTECH 65.7 12.1 195089

ELECTCAST 17.7 4.4 870587

GAEL 210.9 2.1 162639

GPPL 86.8 0.9 416315

GRANULES 363.2 3 5558008

HAVELLS 674.8 1.4 1988430

IBVENTURES 215.8 2.4 1940154

MAHINDCIE 139.3 5.6 349071

MMFL 319.1 1.6 35497

NIITLTD 137.3 2 1681651

SEQUENT 150.4 4.8 2103888

TANLA 259.8 3.2 771653

TIRUMALCHM 73.7 6.3 811138

Same table as a picture.

Commentary:

The difference between the two lists is that the first one finds stocks that are mostly rising after a long time. That is we see more stocks in it when money rotation is happening from large caps to mid caps and mid caps to small caps. The second list contains more stocks which have remnant effect. For example we see Granules and Tanla which had a good run-up recently. But as they have already runup, their volumes won't be as high as earlier when they initially show up in the first list, few months ago.

What can we do with two lists then?

Follow first list to get to know new stocks to which money is shifting. But that could be temporary too. If you were to consider these for long term watch list, very few will make it to that as most will fall down over time. Best time to find long term or medium term stocks from the first list is after a good downtrend is over. That is because this list is about finding stocks that have potential movement in the near future. But as bull market progresses, at some point we reach the peak. Then many junk stocks get money rotation benefit simply because they haven't rise for many months even while rest of the market had a good runup.

We should always be careful with the stocks that show up towards the end. It will have both good ones and bad ones too. Two things can help us from these stocks. One is the remnant effect that the stocks in this list show by giving atleast one second chance to get out. Another is our ability to detect change in sentiment in the market. First thing can be done with logic. Second thing requires intuition that comes with experience. If we don't read too much into news and small impact stuff, by process of elimination, and thinking of market movements of today, the day before, the week before, the month before and the up/down cycles that happened, we will gradually develop intuition. We will be able to feel the rhythm of the market. This helps us decide if we should hold the stocks for more upmove or get out with profit or zero loss or minimum loss, depending on extreme movements at that time.

The second list, helps to spot stocks that are familiar to us. Or those that are already in our watchlist. For example, you built your watchlist of stocks that you have followed for years or stocks that have good fundamentals and good expected future. If you are not investing in them long term, but want to capture sudden big movements in price that happens every few months, then you can spot them in the second list. These would show up in the first list too, after a market meltdowns. The growth stocks show up first after market crash because they are the ones investors will support first. After they rise a lot, they shift to other stocks that got ignored but are also good in fundamentals, though not as best as the first set of stocks. Money keeps shifting this way. After some time of consolidation in good stocks, they slow begin to move upwards to break previous high levels. Then also they show up in the secondary tables here.

I should have followed two tables from the beginning because I would not have missed Avantifeed's move recently. But I had traded Astrazen which made similar move in the same timeframe, but as I watched it closely, I traded it. This list would have helped notice Avantifeed too. Dixon too moved and I missed that too. By following coforge closely I got into it, after these three stocks' movement was reaching peak. Now coforge is doing good but dixon pulled back a lot. This happens. There is a phase shift between fundamentally good stocks too. The secondary list can helps us shift between them or notice their phase shift.

Noticing the phase shift between them is important for short term or medium term trading. Once you have seen a significant move in one stock, you need to prepare for the next. At that peak time, there will be stocks having had some weeks of consolidation and preparing for a rise. You could note few of them to enter at any time. But this list shows one or two of them first, and you can get into them. The others too would rise but if they don't make it to the secondary list, then they are only giving last chance for trapped traders to get out with minimum loss.

If all this sounds very confusing, don't worry. When we learn something new, we need to first anchor the new knowledge with existing knowledge. If it is too different from what we know, it is not easy to associate with existing knowledge and we get fed up with information overload. But as we go back, relax and ponder over it, then some structure develops in our mind to which we can anchor new knowledge better next time we read that. Just don't give up on learning.

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Stock Selection List for Short Term Study (2 Weeks Timeframe) from 22-Sep-20

Since mid of August, I have started doing this as a study so the readers of this blog can learn along with me. I am also giving valuable list of stocks for quick profit. If anyone bought Kiriindus and Trent on the morning of 25th August as they showed up in 24th August list, they would have gotten a profit of 4-6% by evening.

I got inspired for this selection when I once noticed Indigo on daily chart and next day bought its CE at 9 and sold at 18 after few hours. Later traded TNPL, INFIBEAM, DIAMONDYD, JOCIL, BLISSGVS, ATULAUTO, during mid weeks of August and booked about 5% profit in a short time. Every stock may not rise the very next day. But I observed the potential for a rise in the next 10 days, on few stocks over a historical period of five years. Thus I decided to make such list everyday and trade familiar stocks or observe them for building trading watchlists to grow familiarity to trade later.

Today's short term selection list for short term study (2 weeks timeframe). Their performance will be reviewed after 6-Oct along with two weeks lists at one time.

Today's list got '0' stocks.

However 11 stocks showed up in the secondary list.

company symbol today's close price % rise today avg volume

AHLWEST 287.4 4.5 1694

ARROWGREEN 51.5 4.7 5423

BETA 97.5 2.8 13776

COFORGE 2161.3 2.8 632075

HESTERBIO 1709.2 1 17151

HIKAL 177.2 3.8 1875333

OBEROIRLTY 418.1 1.4 499753

SCAPDVR 1.6 3.2 92243

THYROCARE 801.4 3.4 273079

UNITY 1.1 5 30360

VERTOZ 143.3 3.6 65546

Same table as a picture.

Commentary:

Retracements and pauses are common in downtrend. That is how one will miss exiting hoping for more rise. However this time, our markets will not fall all the way to March lows because the stimulus that was announced at that time would go waste. Markets are falling for expected delay in next stimulus announcement in US. At the most these could fall to 50% point between March lows and recent peak levels since March till now.

That means 9500 is the retracement level for NIFTY. Nifty could fall more than US markets because of the recent stake sale hungama going on in our markets. Govt. started selling HAL shares. Esselpack promoter did major sale last week. Today and tomorrow GMMPFAUDLER promoters are doing offer for sale, which is simply stake in a little different way than dumping in the open market.

Govt. lost taxes by way of lockdown extensions that shut down the economy. So no earnings. No taxes to govt. The recent sharp and relentless rise in the market is seen by companies to book the too-good-to-be-true profits, in the face of increasing covid cases. Hence it is not a good idea to buy any stocks at high levels. Buy on pullbacks. That too only good stocks for long term. For short term, better to wait till sentiment changes "decisively" to positive. Till then observe which sectors are getting investor interest and relate to the news and potential future.

If you liked this post, please check any of the Reaction boxes below and subscribe to this blog or follow by adding email on the right side of the blog. If you want to post any questions or share thoughts, feel free to add comments below.

Read the disclaimer on the right side of this blog (in desktop mode) before making any investment/trading decisions.

Continue reading...

Stock Selection List for Short Term Study (2 Weeks Timeframe) from 21-Sep-20

Since mid of August, I have started doing this as a study so the readers of this blog can learn along with me. I am also giving valuable list of stocks for quick profit. If anyone bought Kiriindus and Trent on the morning of 25th August as they showed up in 24th August list, they would have gotten a profit of 4-6% by evening.

I got inspired for this selection when I once noticed Indigo on daily chart and next day bought its CE at 9 and sold at 18 after few hours. Later traded TNPL, INFIBEAM, DIAMONDYD, JOCIL, BLISSGVS, ATULAUTO, during mid weeks of August and booked about 5% profit in a short time. Every stock may not rise the very next day. But I observed the potential for a rise in the next 10 days, on few stocks over a historical period of five years. Thus I decided to make such list everyday and trade familiar stocks or observe them for building trading watchlists to grow familiarity to trade later.

Today's short term selection list for short term study (2 weeks timeframe). Their performance will be reviewed after 5-Oct along with two weeks lists at one time.

company symbol today's close price % rise today

GOCLCORP 201.7 9.6

HERCULES 96.2 3.7

KANORICHEM 39.8 8.6

SASKEN 639 8

Same table as a picture.

On days like this big fall day, I have decided to put a bigger list as we see good opportunities and some of them get missed simply because of my refining the list. Here I also add avg. volume that can help for further filtering as short term is best on the high volume, high volatile, large cap stocks which respect support/resistance levels giving good trading opportunities.

Here is the table for the secondary list.

company symbol today's close price % rise today avg volume

BANARBEADS 54.5 1.2 27887

CAMLINFINE 93.6 1.4 648526

GOCLCORP 201.7 9.6 34477

HERCULES 96.2 3.7 171181

KANORICHEM 39.8 8.6 60385

MAJESCO 764.8 1 151188

SALASAR 190.4 4.4 37610

SASKEN 639 8 73584

SOMATEX 3.2 4.9 15853

Same table as a picture.

Commentary:

As we are still in negative sentiment with only remnant effect showing some positive movement, today's big fall was not a shock, despite the reasons. So no more trading till the sentiment decisively changes to positive.

However I thought of some better ways to filter these stocks. One is above secondary list on days like today. Another I will study some fundamentals. For them daily posting won't be required. Few such stocks every few days would be good.

If you liked this post, please check any of the Reaction boxes below and subscribe to this blog or follow by adding email on the right side of the blog. If you want to post any questions or share thoughts, feel free to add comments below.

Read the disclaimer on the right side of this blog (in desktop mode) before making any investment/trading decisions.

Continue reading...