Featured Post

How to do SIP (Systematic Investment) in Stocks?

“History is written by the winners” -Napoleon Bonaparte I won’t be writing about the SIP which is already covered in the public doma...

Sunday, June 6, 2010

Jayeebhava – What a Real Crap Movie, like Trading an FMCG Stock!

Jayeebhava Telugu movie October 2009
"hIroyijam anTE.. anukunTe vachchEdi kAdu
blaD lO unDAli bradar" – Protagonist in Jayeebhava

"హీరొయిజం అంటే.. అనుకుంటె వచ్చేది కాదు
బ్లడ్ లో ఉండాలి బ్రదర్" - జయీభవ కథానాయకుడు

This is too much crap. Almost every Telugu person likes Sri NT Rama Rao (ఎన్టీఆర్). That does not mean that these heros (his grand sons) should repeatedly use his fame to support their films. Jr. NTR's movies are okay to watch. But Nandamuri Kalyan Ram is playing with his money.

When I went home for Diwali last year I heard lot of buzz about this movie Jayeebhava. On TV channels as trailers or ads, on FM Radio too there was promotion of this movie. Not knowing what was there in the movie, I only guessed "Oh.. the movie might do too well."

It went unnoticed since then. The actor Nandamuri Kalyan Ram looks just like one friend of mine. As each hero has his unique style I wondered what his style was other than being grand son of Anna garu.

Starting with the titles I noticed the producer name as NKR, the protagonist. I got the first doubt about the movie. Why did he have to produce his own movie? Was nobody daring to take the risk to do a business with him?

వీడికి పులి కావల్సొచ్చింద? అసలే ౧౪౧౨ (1412 tigers) మిగిల్నయంటె!

Although the initial scene makes one think that this is a serious movie one would be mislead. Just after 10 minutes I got the second doubt with his song (NKR walks with a Tiger as pet instead of dog – good money spent for graphics), extra cutting dialogues (బై బర్త్ నాకు బలుపెక్కువ.. అందరూ నన్నే చూడాలి) and over-action (బార్ కెల్లి తాగకుండ బాటిల్ విసిరి నలుగురిని తన్నడం). Then the crap starts and I realized the truth.

NKR does not know how to act (by birth naaku balupekkuva.. Andaru nanne choodali). I know that acting is not an easy job. But then there are professionals to do that if he cannot. Just because he has money he produces a movie with himself as hero. This film gives the impression that it is a casual business. It gets exaggerated when using names like NTR, Anna garu, Thaatha garu, Chirru, Kirru etc.

Even the storyline is not unique. To a great extent it is just a copy of earlier film Ready of young actor Ram. Ram acts very well with his own style. What is this guy thinking of movie? Acting is an art. Blood (ancestral background – NTR, N Balakrishna, N Harikrishna) or bank balance (actor and producer) won’t give that skill. One should practice and perfect the art.

Even superstar Krishna is okay in acting. He (Kalyanram) acts as if his action is over and talking to the crew members. At best he did not have a banner of NTR on his head. What a crap movie! The storyline and his acting make the movie so predictable and so uninteresting. Even documentaries are nice to watch. Some comedy scenes of Brahmanandam are unique and add fun to the movie. Otherwise this is really a total crap. Somehow I felt that blood during violence was not shown appropriately. Even without using a sword the villain gets blood on the back of his neck which is totally crap. Nobody ever hits a villain at the back of his neck in fight scenes. Also color of blood looked like orange color paint. It was overdone.

All the while I was thinking like this: Oh.. What is NKR thinking? Produce a movie as an actor, copy some storyline of a successful movie and the movie produces more money (and he also becomes a top hero). It is like an FMCG company that does not create new products but keeps on selling same product like Colgate or still better comparison is Hindustan Unilever. This HUL stock now changed name to ULL that never goes up or down. Its price was stable for a really long time since bull markets and in the last worst bear market too! Watching this movie was like trading or tracking or being trapped in an FMCG (ULL) stock. What a waste of time! (I did really trade HUL for many months so I know it)

If this is to treat movies just as a form of business making little profit with each movie then it is fine. But if NKR expects to become a top actor then.. that is a good joke.

సినిమా ఇండస్ట్రీ ఇజ్జత్ తీసేస్తుండు.
"అభినయం రాకపోయినా ఫైట్లు, స్టంట్లు కుంటోడు, అవిటోడు కూడా చేస్తడు.
దానికి ఒక హీరో కావాలా, బ్లడ్ లో ఉండే హీరో కావాలా?" అని NKR చూపించిండు.
సినిమా అంటే మజాక్ అనుకుంటుండు మన ఎన్కేఆర్.

What a real crap even in minute details. This movie violates causality. In one scene they show how to attract a bullet backwards to pull inside the gun. That is the best way to describe it. Otherwise in rewinding of the gunshot two cigarette smokers react in a forwarding sense as the bullet passes backward. Did I miss on why this crappy scene was made?

Continue reading...

Tuesday, June 1, 2010

The Second Wave of Great (Deep) Recession is Around the Corner

The much awaited second wave of great recession is around the corner. The first wave started with a sudden shocking wave coincident with local problems (Relpower finance, Weekend holidays and late morning opening times for banks) and global causes (Powershow of FIIs in shaking markets). It ended finally like a bloody war ends, with many interesting events along the way (Oil prices flare-up, Russia correcting Georgia, finishing touch with year-end quarter meltdown). Of all, the most memorable was the September-October meltdown that rocked all businesses worldwide. Life was never the same. Everything became 1/3 :-).

The sudden tsunami wave on Jan 22 2008 had suggested the depth of the then upcoming recession. Many analysts announced that it would be worser than the Great Depression of the past century. That meant that it won’t be like a small recession in a growing economic scenario. That is why it will have its own waves or trends and counter trends. The first wave has passed (2008) and also the first counter trend (last year’s intermediate bull market trend or temporary economic growth).

There is an Elliot Wave Theory on stock market movements. This theory talks about five waves in a particular trend. In those five three will be in the same trend and two will be counter trend as illustrated in the figure. It is also showing three more waves after the peak.

second wave of recession, elliot waves, stock market movements
Elliot Wave Illustration (cc-licensed image)

Basically we can take two ideas from this. That is, a particular trend once established gets completed in three in-trend waves with two counter-trend waves of lesser strength separating each of them. And the counter wave moves the market back less than the in-trend wave moves it. That is retracements or pullbacks won’t exceed the damage or growth done by the initial moves. If they do that indicates trend reversal and more strength in the counter trend so that it establishes a new trend.

When recession appeared to start in January 2008 it was thought of as a healthy normal correction like any other time in the past few years before 2008. The stocks in mid December 2007 to first week of 2008 were all skyrocketing. Dummies too got a life. Too many stocks were making into the list of 52-week highs. Unfortunately I didn’t realize what I was witnessing. That was the peak of the bull market (in other words like Everest for a mountaineer). Even if you had traded stock after stock with strict stop losses making sure to trade as many stocks as possible you would have made all the money that the same capital would have earned in long term trades in the three years of bull market before that month.

I just guessed that this (great) recession would be a nine month recession like a temporary counter trend in a long term bull market trend. But things changed (or became apparent) rapidly in 2008. Then I had to expect a nine month growth period (counter trend in a long term bear market) after the first wave. This trend started with its own shocking wave (should I say so - on May 18 2009, UPA winning India’s elections) and revived all the stock broking businesses by now. It must have been a good ride for those who had participated in it (as the stats show).

Like the sequel of a movie series I don’t expect the same action/thrill in the second wave as it was in the first wave. As the governments over the world have intervened in the way of the economic recession to maintain the status quo of old heroes and suppress the newcomers, we may not have to expect the same effects of this wave as that of the first one. Rather than expecting something I want to be a spectator for this wave. If there is anything we should watch out for the third wave which is likely to coincide with 2012. Let us wait and watch as the future unfolds itself.

Update (04/06/10): When I said "we may not have to expect the same effects of this wave as that of the first", I also mean that the stock indexes might actually go up instead of down (that will be the effect of inflation which is the effect of governments intervention into business).

Update on 18 Dec, 2011: Well the future is unfolding now. 2012 seems to unfold a great deal of action, not the action in the movie 2012, though :) But in the financial world. I think the future is more of a re'grow'ce'th'ssion than simply growth or recession. Recession and growth happening parallelly, recession for those who can't compete and growth for others who see and exploit opportunities fast.

Prolonged period of uncertainty is expected as people evolve and learn from previous recessions. No matter how much it gets prolonged the worst part of dramatic action can't be escaped. If it gets prolonged much, its effect will only be worse. The history shows that the last legs of recession are always worse. I used to say, things will only get better before they get worse. The best part may be getting over. Now I would say things won't get better, this time, after they get worse.

Continue reading...