Friday, September 18, 2020

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Review of Performance of 04-Sep-20 Stocks List


Let us review the performance of the stocks list posted based on 4th September closing. We had a total of just 5 stocks in the list on that day. I will not post the same list again. That can be reviewed here.

company symbol buy price min price max price 10th day price target met % gain min. to 10th day % gain buy day to max. % gain buy day to 10th day
AMBER 1835.65 1770.05 2065.1 2037.85 1 15.1 12.5 11
CYBERTECH 57.2 57.2 67.05 62.3 1 8.9 17.2 8.9
EIMCOELECO 348.1 330 348.1 346.2 0 4.9 0 -0.5
GENUSPOWER 26.45 25.5 29.9 29.1 1 14.1 13 10
RELAXO 656.65 635.6 675.75 673.8 0 6 2.9 2.6

Same table as a picture.

You can click on it to see in full size.

Analysis of Performance

Net gain on capital in scenario 1: 3.4% (gain)

Net gain on capital in scenario 2: 6.4% (gain)

Net gain on capital in scenario 3: 9.1% (gain)

Net gain on capital in scenario 4: 9.8% (gain)

For details of each scenario, you can go through the explanation given for 20th August list review.

One point I will re-iterate here which was concluded from the review of 31-August list, is that today's good performance coincides with another day of NIFTY's bad fall day. The 4th September was 4th day after 31-August and the second day when Nifty fell badly from that time. The list was small with only 5 stocks on that day. Those did well, showing another point we learned during these performance reviews. It is that the stocks showing up here, may not all rise at the same time, but after a time period of even a slight sentiment change from negative to positive (this is important as I am telling from my experience), some stocks gain and some do not fall badly so as to result in a good overall gain. Such days are important to pick short term stocks. That means if we pick stocks from such time, the 10 day rule need not be applied to constrain the situation. Relaxing time will help wait till sentiment changes, atleast slightly, which is enough for the overall portfolio to come to profit. Keep this learning in mind.

From Monday post onwards I will not do daily performance reviews. There is no point in doing this daily. Further filtering is anyway needed. The daily list means one will pick stocks from different dates whenever familiar or good fundamental stocks show up or stocks with investor interest show up. To that end, monthly performance review or weekly is good enough.

The lists can be used as a statistic of the market to guage sentiment and to build watch lists. 
Lists can be made for medium term (from stocks with investor interest or significant news) trading, long term trading (from stocks with fundamentals passing LINDY EFFECT), jackpot trading and short term option trading opportunities in large caps or NIFTY stocks. As we see from above large paragraph of a learning point, this list is good to keep track for different days to see which stocks to pick due to their relative good performance in a weak market vs. which stocks to, perhaps, offload from portfolio due to their relative bad performance in a bullish market.

There was another statistic for NIFTY stocks that I was thinking of, based on the ORB strategy performance data. I will post the background for that and start the statistic, as it can help with some trades for those who can do.

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