Tuesday, September 1, 2020

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Stock Selection List Short Term Study (2 Weeks Timeframe) for 01-Sep-20


Since mid of August, I have started doing this as a study so the readers of this blog can learn along with me. I am also giving valuable list of stocks for quick profit. If anyone bought Kiriindus and Trent on the morning of 25th August as they showed up in 24th August list, they would have gotten a profit of 4-6% by evening.

I got inspired for this selection when I once noticed Indigo on daily chart and next day bought its CE at 9 and sold at 18 after few hours. Later traded TNPL, INFIBEAM, DIAMONDYD, JOCIL, BLISSGVS, ATULAUTO, during mid weeks of August and booked about 5% profit in a short time. Every stock may not rise the very next day. But I observed the potential for a rise in the next 10 days, on few stocks over a historical period of five years. Thus I decided to make such list everyday and trade familiar stocks or observe them for building trading watchlists to grow familiarity to trade later.

Today's short term selection list for short term study (2 weeks timeframe). Their performance will be reviewed after 15-Sep.

company symbol  % rise today  today's close price
FCONSUMER 5 12.6
VARDHACRLC 16.1 34.6

Same table as a picture.

Commentary:

Today steel stocks are up by end of the day. Its been 7 days since they made the last high. Seventh day has some magic. We can see that it is the 7th day today for both TATASTEEL and SAIL in their charts below.





For options, it is especially good to buy on the day of a big fall or after 5 days from the last peak, because the call premium erodes more than normal. Once it rises, the call premium goes up too much that it will erode too much even if the stock goes up and pullback to same level. Yesterday's big fall would not have made the premium erode a lot as volatility increases with fast fall. But when it falls little by little daily like on the August 14 before a big rise in two days, best premium gain can be achieved. Looks like steel stocks could be buoyant for sometime.

Our list only shows two stocks indicating that the money pumping into the market is taking a break. Adanigreen is trending up after a break of two months after a non-stop run-up from the March lows till June. Astrazen is another stock that I know which had a two month break and did not participate in these two months' rallies.

Yesterday we had Q1 GDP contraction number as well along with Indo-China border tensions. We had Indo-China tensions in June as well. But markets reacted badly now maybe because the bullishness is reducing at higher levels so bears could have a rampage. It was more of profit booking as many stocks that went up recently had a big fall. And those that could go up further are recovering fast. Blissgvs esselpack did a good recovery today.

Q1 GDP contraction is not an unexpected thing. It is just the market's irrational uptrend that was unexpected. Now I am wondering if any irrational move in a market lasts less than a quarter's time. Because after one quarter we will have some data coming out that will get the markets to reality. With our Govt. we can expect to have swings every two quarters.

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