Let us review the performance of the stocks list posted based on 27th August closing. We had a total of 22 stocks in the list on that day. I will not post the same list again. That can be reviewed here.
| company symbol | buy price | min price | max price | 10th day price | target met | % gain min. to 10th day | % gain buy day to max. | % gain buy day to 10th day |
| AMRUTANJAN | 477.05 | 421.6 | 477.05 | 421.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -11.6 |
| ASTRAMICRO | 128.8 | 114.7 | 128.8 | 121.95 | 0 | 6.3 | 0 | -5.3 |
| AVADHSUGAR | 205.2 | 185.3 | 205.2 | 188.05 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 | -8.4 |
| BFINVEST | 334.8 | 293.2 | 334.8 | 299.6 | 0 | 2.2 | 0 | -10.5 |
| BSE | 514.65 | 498.25 | 545.8 | 534.1 | 1 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 3.8 |
| CENTRUM | 16.55 | 15.6 | 16.95 | 15.95 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.4 | -3.6 |
| DBCORP | 80.65 | 74.95 | 81.1 | 74.95 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | -7.1 |
| DBREALTY | 8 | 6.75 | 8 | 6.8 | 0 | 0.7 | 0 | -15 |
| DONEAR | 31.4 | 26.5 | 31.4 | 26.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -15.6 |
| FRETAIL | 130.1 | 96.55 | 162.35 | 101.35 | 1 | 5 | 24.8 | -22.1 |
| GODFRYPHLP | 1035.45 | 910.7 | 1035.45 | 913.25 | 0 | 0.3 | 0 | -11.8 |
| GUJALKALI | 369.9 | 335.05 | 378.1 | 340.5 | 0 | 1.6 | 2.2 | -7.9 |
| HBLPOWER | 17.15 | 15.5 | 17.15 | 15.95 | 0 | 2.9 | 0 | -7 |
| KAMATHOTEL | 35.1 | 30.8 | 35.1 | 31.4 | 0 | 1.9 | 0 | -10.5 |
| KANSAINER | 498.7 | 473.4 | 499.05 | 487 | 0 | 2.9 | 0.1 | -2.3 |
| KITEX | 114.1 | 102.05 | 114.1 | 103.3 | 0 | 1.2 | 0 | -9.5 |
| MAANALU | 74.8 | 66.7 | 76.5 | 69.9 | 0 | 4.8 | 2.3 | -6.6 |
| MAWANASUG | 31.35 | 26.5 | 31.45 | 26.5 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | -15.5 |
| MURUDCERA | 17.85 | 15.55 | 17.85 | 15.7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -12 |
| SIS | 399.05 | 343.65 | 399.05 | 357.85 | 0 | 4.1 | 0 | -10.3 |
| TAJGVK | 155.95 | 135.8 | 155.95 | 138.3 | 0 | 1.8 | 0 | -11.3 |
| ZEELEARN | 16.45 | 14.4 | 16.45 | 14.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -12.5 |
Same table as a picture.
You can click on it to see in full size.
Analysis of Performance
Net gain on capital in scenario 1: -8.4% (loss)
Net gain on capital in scenario 2: -9.7% (loss)
Net gain on capital in scenario 3: 1.76% (gain)
Net gain on capital in scenario 4: 2.16% (gain)
For details of each scenario, you can go through the explanation given for 20th August list review.
This is a bad result so far. This makes me think it is better to use this list to build watch list than directly start trading. Meanwhile we can check news, earnings of those stocks and further filter good ones.
Given huge number of stocks that are not meeting targets I wonder how the performance will be if we set a stop loss at 5%. Problem with stop loss is we could close some positions before they rise again. To avoid such scenarios, it is only logical that we buy the stock after a pullback. How much is a good pullback to expect? A reasonable pullback is 50% fibonacci retracement. After a pullback a stock is more likely to first rise by 5% than to first fall by 5%. During bad downtrends ofcourse stocks will reluctantly but surely fall. But then as we see huge number of stocks in such times, we might have an upper cap of 5% loss per stock in those times. Whereas in other times, they could average losses to zero while the gainers would show good gain by the 10th day.
So we can build a 5th Scenario where we use stop loss of 5%, but entry will be at 50% retracement level. Some stocks may not retrace that much. So it will be difficult to implement. Backtesting can also be difficult. But it seems to be better scenario to follow than even 2nd scenario.
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