Thursday, September 10, 2020

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Stock Selection List Short Term Study (2 Weeks Timeframe) for 10-Sep-20


Since mid of August, I have started doing this as a study so the readers of this blog can learn along with me. I am also giving valuable list of stocks for quick profit. If anyone bought Kiriindus and Trent on the morning of 25th August as they showed up in 24th August list, they would have gotten a profit of 4-6% by evening.

I got inspired for this selection when I once noticed Indigo on daily chart and next day bought its CE at 9 and sold at 18 after few hours. Later traded TNPL, INFIBEAM, DIAMONDYD, JOCIL, BLISSGVS, ATULAUTO, during mid weeks of August and booked about 5% profit in a short time. Every stock may not rise the very next day. But I observed the potential for a rise in the next 10 days, on few stocks over a historical period of five years. Thus I decided to make such list everyday and trade familiar stocks or observe them for building trading watchlists to grow familiarity to trade later.

Today's short term selection list for short term study (2 weeks timeframe). Their performance will be reviewed after 24-Sep.
company symbol  today's close price  % rise today
DIAPOWER 0.9 5.9
GENUSPOWER 28.3 11
PALASHSECU 31.9 3.4
SUTLEJTEX 25.3 17.9
UNITEDTEA 341.7 9.9

Same table as a picture.

Commentary:

Didn't expect today's stable rise in the market as it was firstly fueled by Reliance only. By eod Reliance was up 7% which I was wondering if it will do its max. one day move today itself. Few years ago Nifty stocks making more than 5% gain was not seen. Because of that when Reliance started rising from 2016/2017 years, seeing its max. intraday rise of 7% I thought that is a good gain for a NIFTY stock. Otherwise many Nifty stocks hardly rise more than that. But recent months we have seen many NIFTY stocks having larger intraday rises. Probably because the volatility is higher than precovid times.

Now I am realizing that there are few stocks in NIFTY that are in long term trend. And also something I observed for which I coined the term "Investor Interest" for stocks that are of trending type. That means I would say Bajfinance is a stock that has investor interest in my terminology. Or it is trending type. Even though it pulled back a lot due to clear bad news looming over the finance sector, it made a stupendous recovery from the low levels of 1900 to 3700 recently. More than 50% recovery from the peak to bottom. Are all other finance/banking stocks doing that? Even BANKNIFTY? That is because it is trending type. Or let us say it has investor interest.

We can know such thing after observing a stock for few months/years. I observed bajfinance for two years so I noticed it. But as I didn't have a vocabulary for it, many such stocks got mixed up with junk stocks in my mind. Now I separate them with help of this term. Similarly there was this stock "Shredigcem". I traded it by looking for short term stock lists and found in June. It was doing good uptrending moves. But I held it ignoring that it had quarterly results one day and my gains of 9% reduced to -9% losses in one day when it fell 18% after quarterly results day. Then I realized the importance of this term and the earnings day together. I felt this was good stocks, that's the only term I would use earlier. Now I call it a stock with "investor interest". So it tends to trend.

Shredigcem didn't fall much after that day because it had investor interest. It recovered from March lows early and crossed precovid highs even before I bought it. So I expected it to fall all the way down to precovid levels. But it didn't. So I kept averaging it banking on investor interest to give me a second chance to get out. It did and I got out with -0.5% loss. Actually I could have gotten out with +0.5% gain too, as it went 2-3% more after I sold. But I decided to get out because investor interest only helps to get out on second chance but its fundamentals are not relatively good now. Given that there are also companies that are posting better than expected quarterly results despite lockdown impact, why struggle with it. Later it fell down more than 20% as NIFTY started pullback. It can still be traded with averaging and little profit can be made. But why play with it if we can find stocks with both good quarterly results and also investor interest.

There is a similar stock SUNFLAG. This and above have similar market cap <1000cr. SUNFLAG too has investor interest and its reaction after quarterly results was good. So it is a better candidate than Shredigcem for short term trading. Today Sunflag is up 13%, negating many days of losses. But Shredigcem didn't negate. By the time it does, Sunflag might go to new highs. Looks like earnings difference leads to divergence in good stocks as well. Later if the earnings catch up expectations then Shredigcem might make unusual short term jump to new highs. Then we will wonder how did we miss it.

Reliance is also a stock with investor interest. You can say all NIFTY stocks have investor interest, because of huge volume in them. The intent here is to identify those which get support despite poor performance sometimes. Nowadays Reliance moves a lot on news.

There are some other fundamentally good stocks without investor interest. It is difficult to follow their trend. To make profit in such stock, one needs to buy on pullbacks and wait till they rise. They may rise deceptively late testing your patience. Knowing which stocks are which type, helps make plan on further investments or exits in stocks.

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