Showing posts with label trading. Show all posts
Showing posts with label trading. Show all posts

Thursday, July 2, 2009

What is Your Stock - A Laggard, a Leader or a Mover?

Leaders and laggards in your stocksImage Source

Do you trade stocks just without knowing what type it its? Are they moving along with the market, ahead of the market or behind the market? There is a simple categorization of stocks into laggards, leaders and movers. Knowing this can make a big difference in your trading success in the long run.

Classification of Traded Stocks

There are actually only two categories – laggards or leaders. But the stocks can be categorized into three in reality. But the third term is not right though I used it for the sake of understanding. Mover actually, in popular sense, means that the stock that is heavily traded on a given day. Even this classification can help make better bets in the next trades.

The stocks in a market can move independently on their own or get influenced by the movement of other stocks. The reasons can be different but apparently we can see that some stocks are getting influenced by other stocks movement. This apparent distinction in time between different stocks results in a whole new opportunity to trade well.

Who are Leaders?

Some stocks tend to move ahead of the market. These are called as leaders. These are the stocks that make their name in the top section of the list of gainers and losers for a given day or time period. They are moving ahead of the market not just in terms of gains but there are also cases, where certain stocks make their moves before other stocks can make their own.

Who are Laggards?

Some stocks tend to move behind the market. Generally these are thought to be as the stocks that do not make as much gains as top gainers and as much losses as top losers. But my classification here is not about that. It is about the time when they make their move. Whether it be small or big compared to the leaders but they move only after leaders made their move. These stocks are called laggards.

It is All in the Time Difference of Movements

Even though the term leader is referred to in the right sense, the difference I am going to bring up here is about the time difference between laggards and leaders when they make their best moves in price. I found that these terms are also used to refer to exactly this difference by some traders.

In between these two types of stocks there are other stocks generally which form the rest of the market that move just along with the market in synchronization in time with the indices. As these are more in number they make the part of portfolio of almost every trader. Only those traders, who stick to a particular strategy, do consider different stocks and get some flexibility in their trading.

Making a Trading Strategy Out of Leaders and Laggards

Knowing this classification of stocks, we can make some interesting conclusions. I observed that stocks that become leaders continue to be so in their next moves as well. You will get to know this as you track market statistics on a regular basis. Similarly stocks that become laggards, tend to continue like that for some more moves. It is this behavior of stocks that results in a whole new opportunity to trade. We can make a simple trading strategy out of this.

The strategy is to trade the stocks that move as laggards once you notice that leaders have just made a move. Before you can apply this, you should have already built a list of stocks that fit into these two categories. You can apply this strategy for both short term trading and long term trading as well. You can also do this for long buying and short selling as well.

So It is Fortunately a Consistent Strategy

I am amazed at how consistent this pattern of behavior is found in stocks from time to time. And in fact I don’t know when it was different. Some stocks that I found as leaders continued like that in the last bull market into the trend reversal and later bear market as well. The trick would be to take advantage of the stocks that have not yet made their move when leaders have made it.

It is not hard thing to understand or to execute this strategy. It is pretty simple. There is also no uncertainty in this as to when to exit or when to enter or which stock to choose. Just keep one thing in mind. As you are able to find stocks with certainty of move, go for any stock that satisfies these criteria and hasn’t moved yet. Don’t worry about which stock might give bigger return. After all you have removed so much of uncertainty in your trading. Can’t you cope with this one uncertainty about the amount of return of the trade?

There is also another way to benefit from this classification of stocks. It is when sitting tight as I explained earlier. When sitting tight, it will become easier to anticipate when the stock may move and you may plan exit, after determining what type of stock you are holding. If it was leader, you may consider exiting and jumping immediately into a laggard. If it was a laggard, then you know that the expected move is just about to begin. That can help you hold your patience with the stock. This is important in the long run.

First Build the List and Then Trade

If you haven’t yet done something like this, then you should start building the list of stocks. Track them regularly before classifying into appropriate categories Also note that there can be certain stocks that change their behavior from one move to next. But there are also consistent stocks. You need to pick only such stocks. To make it better apply diversification strategy here.

You too can add it into your strategy of trading and enjoy the simplicity it gives!

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Sunday, March 8, 2009

Domestic Institutional Investors Just Can’t Stop Buying

If you ask any businessman about who has the money in these difficult times, he will say that the customer has the money. But if you ask me the same question to me I will say that it is the Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) in India that have the money. And they demonstrate it everyday by buying stocks on the Indian bourses.

good evening snow and treesImage Source

If you are wondering who these DIIs are, they are just opposite of FIIs. FIIs are foreign Institutional Investors meaning the institutional investors trading/investing stocks from other countries. Where as DIIs are the institutions within our own country. Examples are LIC, UTI bank and several public sector banks/insurance companies.

In fact these institutions get an official request from the government of India to do those transactions mainly on the buy side to support markets during the turbulent times. Turbulent times are when the markets only go down due to excessive supply from all market participants. Do not take its literal meaning the share market context.

One must have known a slang word in Telugu used to best describe these type of investors. I am just reversing it to spell it as – puluba. These investors have lot of puluba in terms of money that they keep showing it on the bourses when every individual investors on the Dalal Street has no clue as to why they behave so.

What caused this from 2004?

The story dates long back to 2004 when UPA has won elections on the back of support from the CPI or left front. UPA was formed from coalition between Congress party and left front parties. Just as the new government came into action, left front already started making comments about their plans and control over the government making reforms in the economy. This concerned investors and more on the FIIs. They started selling stocks in frenzy. That was what caused popular stock market crashes in those days on Bombay Stock Exchange.

bombay stock exchangeImage Source

bombay stock exchange boardImage Source

By that time already there was a good bull market and many investors who were bullish are affected as usual. Some committed suicide and some must have staged rallies as well. Anyway that has made this government (which is still under the same administration from those times) to consider the importance supporting the market through any means. The government based institutional investors like LIC, UTI bank are the companies that are obligated to support the markets as much as they can under all technological limits.

As I get the market statistics on my mobile phone from Indiabulls (my brokerage service), I get to know the daily net transactions of DIIs and FIIs. FIIs not having any choice ended up being net sellers all of the time, while the DIIs are net buyers most of the time. This shows a definite trend which is down trend. The counter trend starts when FIIs become net buyers for more at least two consecutive days. DIIs can remain buyers or may become buyers, but that does not matter for the market direction.

Let us check our next good bet(s)

This time I changed the charts to also add the Bollinger Bands along with usual volume and moving average indicators. The chart for the Cambridge solutions shows its usual consolidation pattern in the midst of a general market meltdown. Its trend is strong as shown by the white candlesticks made every day. That may also mean that it can surge suddenly upwards on a good day or two.

cambridge solutions candlestick chart 06 march 2009Image Source

Then the chart for nifty shows that it has clearly broken the trend line and set the tone for the new down trend in the long term trend. If one wants to short the term, it is better to do it on every rise. Ha ha.. does it sound similar but opposite to traditional saying “buy on every dip”?

nifty candlestick char 06 march 2009Image Source

This time I am also featuring my most tracked exchange traded fund these days. That is the gold benchmark exchange traded scheme. Its scrip id is goldbees on NSE. It can be traded on the national stock exchange just like a stock. The chart for this shows that it just touched the support at the moving average in between the Bolliger bands. I feel that it crosses that and touches the lower Bolliger band before resuming uptrend. We cannot tell when it will do so. But we can see that 1400-1450 may be the good price to catch it to ride the next wave if there is going to be any. Many financial experts give a green signal for Gold. Then why should we ignore the opportunity when it is still one.

goldbees candlestick chart 06 march 2009Image Source

Good luck trading!



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Friday, August 15, 2008

The Fate of SELMCL from here on

The stock has not yet shown signs of any recovery as it hasn’t stopped making new lows. Why I am concentrating more on this stock is because it is an exceptional stock compared to any other stock.
Its long term trend is temporarily changed to down trend. Presently it if forming lower lows and lower highs indicating the pain is not yet over.
Just take a look at this chart. It is clear that it is facing pressure from a distressed seller. The high volumes coupled with its ability to make lower highs and lower lows prove that point.

fate of selmcl from here on

So I expect it to break down further in the coming days/weeks, if not on Monday. We can clearly see that it had traded for a long time in the part (April) around 400 and that served the purpose of being a stop for the last three days as it is still hovering around that level.
In the same way I expect it to retrace back to 500 after many weeks as it traded around that value for many days in June and July and it had been resistance in May. That implies clearly that it can become a resistance in the future also.
My next bet on this stock is to enter after it makes a quick recovery from the lowest low and consolidates for few days. I will then post here at what price to enter and exit.

Update: I watched this stock once in few years and always felt elated seeing it at lower and lower prices. Though it did bounces occasionally once in a few years, they didn't match those of the gainers in each bull market. As of today, 11 Dec 2019, SELMCL share price came down to 0.90. What a fall from 500 levels a decade ago. With GDR share price dilution happened which was one reason for the fall a decade ago. Since it has not stopped falling, neither is it getting delisted from the exchanges. There are many such stocks in the market which keep going lower and lower. I have seen MVL, Antarctica, MTEDUCARE, etc. Recently DHFL, Yes Bank are following the suit. Strictly avoid touching these stocks. It is ok to watch them for fun only.


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