Showing posts with label falling. Show all posts
Showing posts with label falling. Show all posts

Friday, August 15, 2008

The Nifty Caught at Moving Average

The Nifty is at high values and in overbought region. It tried to stay above 4600 but couldn’t stay for overheard pressure is very high. Now it is just above its 20 day moving average. It is now in a situation where its next move will clearly tell whether it has changed the trend from up to down or it deferred that to a future date.

Looking at the below chart it is clear it is behaving normally by falling every day after reaching the highest point in two months. It did like that many times in this year from January. Both the moving averages 20 day and 50day are at the same value. If you look at the right side of the chart it becomes clear that it changes trend downwards after dipping below them and making fake recovery for few days.

nifty char, national stock exchange symbol

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I cannot say anything about this routine behavior except suggesting to getting out of the markets as soon as possible.


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The Fate of SELMCL from here on

The stock has not yet shown signs of any recovery as it hasn’t stopped making new lows. Why I am concentrating more on this stock is because it is an exceptional stock compared to any other stock.
Its long term trend is temporarily changed to down trend. Presently it if forming lower lows and lower highs indicating the pain is not yet over.
Just take a look at this chart. It is clear that it is facing pressure from a distressed seller. The high volumes coupled with its ability to make lower highs and lower lows prove that point.

fate of selmcl from here on

So I expect it to break down further in the coming days/weeks, if not on Monday. We can clearly see that it had traded for a long time in the part (April) around 400 and that served the purpose of being a stop for the last three days as it is still hovering around that level.
In the same way I expect it to retrace back to 500 after many weeks as it traded around that value for many days in June and July and it had been resistance in May. That implies clearly that it can become a resistance in the future also.
My next bet on this stock is to enter after it makes a quick recovery from the lowest low and consolidates for few days. I will then post here at what price to enter and exit.

Update: I watched this stock once in few years and always felt elated seeing it at lower and lower prices. Though it did bounces occasionally once in a few years, they didn't match those of the gainers in each bull market. As of today, 11 Dec 2019, SELMCL share price came down to 0.90. What a fall from 500 levels a decade ago. With GDR share price dilution happened which was one reason for the fall a decade ago. Since it has not stopped falling, neither is it getting delisted from the exchanges. There are many such stocks in the market which keep going lower and lower. I have seen MVL, Antarctica, MTEDUCARE, etc. Recently DHFL, Yes Bank are following the suit. Strictly avoid touching these stocks. It is ok to watch them for fun only.


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