Showing posts with label learning. Show all posts
Showing posts with label learning. Show all posts

Monday, June 8, 2009

Never Make or Take a Loss: You Should not get Trapped with This Belief

When I took the first loss from the stock market one of my friend with whom I discuss stock trading, had given me this principle. The loss though first, was the biggest loss at that time. He told me that the first rule of Warren Buffet’s investing is to never to take a loss and the second rule is never to forget the first rule. It sounded good at that time until I realized how much blood it will take if I were to stick to this.

never make or take a loss, don't get trapped with this beliefImage Source

I was initially depressed about the loss because I had taken it out of a logical decision and not a practical decision. The logic does not work well all the time in stock trading. I did not know that at that time and wanted to give it a try. The stock market recovered immediately and I too would have recovered half of the losses in that same week. The loss came as a sudden surprise from Monday to Tuesday.

At first having learned these two rules from a friend and that too to be of a veteran investor, I got trapped for this belief. I thought it sounds good. It seems too appropriate. If had followed the rule 1, I would not have made such a big loss. If I had forgotten the rule 1, the rule 2 would have reminded me. It was a combination of intelligence and principle. But little did I know at that time that it was a ridiculous rule!

What is All This About?

Let me give an insight into what happens when you get trapped with this belief. Those who cannot take or make a loss from their stock trades, have to end up holding the stock whenever it falls below their buy price.

We are not ideal to always make a right decision to buy the stock at its support point so that it always bounces back from there and we do not see a loss. We are also not ideal traders who could avoid their first loss by buying at the support price from the beginning. And even if you do all that, still the support price itself can change over time and it may move just below your buy price.

So that means we are bound to see our stock going below the buy price. When that happens, it is giving a warning that the trend is going to be bad, that we have the best opportunity to cut our losses at minimum. I have seen that the biggest losses always start with this smallest loss where there was opportunity to cut it off.

There are two things that can happen from there on. The stock will bounce back and go make new highs. In this case you will be very happy if you held the stock following this belief to never take a loss. Of course you should have some rule to take profits at the highest point. That is not the topic of this post, so I will not talk much on that.

On the other hand the stock will continue going down in price. Each time it bounces a little bit it is giving another opportunity to close it. By following this belief to never take a loss, you will get trapped in a stock that keeps going down and down and down to the bottom of the ocean.

Imagine how it would be if you had this experience at any time in the last year. In a bull market these things do not happen and so you would appreciate every silly theory about stock trading. It is only a bear market that shatters all myths and exposes the true hidden secrets for trading successfully. These are also the same secrets that help you make the most in a bull market while others just get you along with the bull ride.

When you get trapped there are a lot of bad consequences that can happen in your life other than financial loss. There was an incident in India in the last year that the husband of a stock trader had decided to divorce her after she made a loss of about 30 lakhs in stocks. He did not want to take that burden when she was making losses. But he would have liked the profits though.

There are also a lot of stock traders who have committed suicide due to margin trading failures in January last year. I would heartrending to read their stories. In fact there are many real estate builders who have sold off their properties for cheapest prices and some have committed suicide because they have incurred huge losses in the stock market. These people are the cause for the fall in reality prices at the same time as the stock market is falling in the last year.

There can be more bad things that can happen if you don’t pull the trigger to cut losses when they are small. Apart from this problem there are other things that you should know to become a successful stock trader and never get into these traps.

Making a Loss is Not Your Choice

Contrary to what many people think making a loss is not same as taking a loss. The stock market’s behavior and its individual stocks’ behavior are not at all in control of any individual trader. As such you can never control whether you are going to make a loss. You can only consider the odds of it before starting any venture.

The stock market behavior is just like a random behavior though there is a pattern in it. It is actually a stochastic behavior. Only people who can understand the statistical nature of this behavior can assess the odds of a situation.

The fact of the matter is that you can control how many losses you may make out of how many attempts by following strong trading principles. But you can never control what will be the fate of a given trade at any point of time.

This is the reason that you can never choose to make a loss. That can happen without your knowing or intention. Then how can you think of rule 1 and then rule 2? You will get irritated about this theory if you really understood what I told so far.

Taking a Lesson By Taking a Loss

I realized that I had done a good thing by taking a loss at my first losing bet. I had only made little profits before that losing trade. Though the loss was big I had taken this loss as I analytically thought that the losses could increase if I didn’t take that.

The losses didn’t increase at that time. But by following this rule to cut loss early on, I had not only saved myself from later even bigger disasters but also learned a lot of wonderful lessons about stock trading.

You should note that by taking a loss early when it is small you are respecting the warning that the market is giving you. It will definitely knock your door when there is a new opportunity. It really happens just like this in stock trading. I had no choice but to accept this as reality.

You will not just cut loss by taking a loss early before it can become big. You will also learn powerful lessons by watching how the stock behaves afterwards and studying all your interaction with the stock since the idea of entering it started in your mind. This is a valuable lesson that is practical and cannot be substituted with any money or training.

A Loss is the Price You are Paying for Your Learning…

Note that every such lesson must be learnt by paying a price. The small losses are indeed the best price you are paying for a lesson. If you don’t do that you are most likely to close a trade by taking loss when it almost hit the bottom. It happens for almost everyone in this business. There is really no point in hanging around with a stock when it lost 95% of its value. Anyone can understand that it is ridiculous to expect a 100% or more turnaround from the same stock. Then the price you paid is too costly.

I did such mistakes again and again but I was glad that I did not do this atleast half of the time. That helped me learn lessons, avoid big losses and what more it also helped me take profits on opportunities that I would have missed if I had hanged around with the same losing stock.

It is Never Late to Learn Stock Trading Principles

Atleast it is not very late to learn this lesson and avoid this belief. You should not worry about taking a loss or making a loss. What you should worry about is its consequences. Assess the varieties of consequences and cut losses early on. Even if the stock were to rebound, it does not matter. You can go immediately for another rising stock that is just delayed.

Note that in the stock market different stocks move at different times. There are some called as laggards that are lazy and some as leaders that are too enthusiastic to be in front of the whole market showing the trend of the market. This helps you get over the small loss you had cut early on.

The right lesson is to learn that it is not in your control to make a loss. But you can take a loss and avoid further losses. You will also not lose another immediate opportunity by doing this. Most importantly taking a loss whether early or late, big or small, means that you are taking a lesson that is practical and unique for your style of trading!

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Tuesday, June 2, 2009

Trade with the Money You can Afford to Lose: Another Myth in Stock Trading

In the series of myths or false beliefs a trader builds about stock trading, this is something very foundational to a stock trader. By working at the capital used for trading this belief acts like a huge blockade even before the marathon is started. After making some initial losses some traders develop this theory on their own while some advocate this to other newbie traders. Novice traders and intelligent people too get trapped in this theory. They do not just start with the money they can afford to lose but also continue to trade so all along.

don't trade with the money you can afford to loseImage Source

When I was first introduced to the stock market I was enthusiastic to know more details about entering the stock markets. “How much money to start with?” is one of the first questions any traders will ask himself or other experienced traders. They often do not realize that there are two sides to this theory of trading with the money you can afford to lose.

Start with the Money You can Afford to Lose

Several people start trading stocks with enthusiasm. It is those people who started with money they cannot afford to lose but end up losing big quantity of it, develop this belief. They make this a principle for their stock trading. You know what, they stop their trading experience at this point only.

I too was told on the first day when I attended a seminar about investing, risk management etc. At the end of the session some people asked questions. I waited to listen to those answers while others started leaving. As I was more interested than others I had stayed to become more certain of this business. Then the speaker (Anand Agarwal from Hyderabad), discussed various things. He was more cautious about giving information thinking that might harm our career or capital with new ventures.

Then there was another person who had little experience and started telling this theory when some other person asked about how to start. This person plainly told, “Start with the money you can afford to lose”. In other words start with that capital that you will not bother losing, or you are ready to lose right now or it does not make you sad at all when you lose it. Even the speaker appreciated it saying it was an important principle. Little did I know at that time that these people do little trading but more talking.

This theory simply implies that you should use money for trading stocks, which can be very small for your eye. Obviously nobody can afford to lose even 10% of their monthly salary. But some people are ready to lose a month’s salary but it is nevertheless very unaffordable to them. They are ready because they are willing to take risk and responsibility rather than just playing it safe.

Several experts advocate this theory. It also makes sense to start with little money or money you can afford to lose because it will be very bad to lose the capital in the first trade itself. It will be a disaster and you may not get over it easily as first impressions are often the lasting impressions. But the problem is that these experts also advocate to continue to trade with the money you can afford to lose. These experts are so scared of giving right advices because it is risky. But there are few people who take that risk and always add disclaimers when giving such suggestions.

My Understanding of This Myth

My understanding of this theory developed with my own thoughts as I started trading stocks. At first I started with the money I cannot afford to lose. Because if I were to afford to lose, there is no money whatsoever. I couldn’t even think of losing a hundred rupees just like that without gaining anything from that experience. I started directly with thousands because that is what makes sense and affects my learning about trading.

As I started I had already been thinking about the profit amount on the first bet if it were 2%, 5% or 10%. The profit amounts looked small with very low capital I am willing to lose. But with the amount I had actually bet, these percentage profits are showing an amount that is comparable to my daily earnings at the job.

Once I had my first few trades, I started learning more about this theory. I realized that this is a false belief and makes a trader get stuck in the beginning never to progress. I asked some intelligent questions to myself and concluded interesting answers.

Why should I trade with the money I can afford to lose?
Because when a trade results in a loss, I wouldn’t be badly affected. I wouldn’t be depressed because I am anyway giving away that money. That money doesn’t matter to me at all. Let me lose it just like that!

How much money can I afford to lose?
Initially it was very small amount. So small that it did not make sense to spend time for trading with that amount. The profit or loss is so negligible, even if the stock doubled or lost 50% percent, that I would not care for it. Though I raised the amount that I can afford to lose over time, still any result as a profit or loss on that amount is negligible. If I were to determine the amount of money that I can lose, it was always something that I wouldn’t care of its consequences as well. And may not even bother spending time on using it.

What will I gain with that money used for trading?
The intention is to learn to trade well and also to learn from mistakes when we are just starting. Even as we continue we still need to learn. But with the money I can lose, the profit or gain on that amount is so small that I couldn’t find any significance in the result. Whether it was a good trade or a bad trade, it simply didn’t have enough weight to affect my beliefs and learning about trading.

As I neglect that money I will someday lose all of it in a single stock. I will let it go because it wouldn’t make a difference. As it does not affect I will not learn any lesson at all.

Why This Theory is Very Bad and What is the Right Theory?

I studied these answers carefully and concluded that if I trade with lesser money I would not learn anything. The intention to start with is not just to lose in the first trade. That loss itself is not certain. But if I continue so, I would not be able pay enough attention and thinking on its results. Simply because these numbers are so small that does not affect my decision making process. I will even start neglecting that money and end up losing all of it. That does not anyway make a difference. But the big loss now is that I stopped without any meaningful reason.

This happens for many people. And they go back to their work never looking back at trading. They lose interest and do not realize that it is all due to this false theory.

The other side of this is that you should start and continue to trade with the money you cannot afford to lose. Many people would say, “You should never trade with the money you cannot afford to lose”. Here I am saying complete opposite of that. I have very strong reasons that I learned as my first lessons in trading stocks.

If you trade with the money you cannot afford to lose then you will pay attention to that activity. You will not lose sight of that even when you are busy with your day job, or any other activity. You will still make time out of your busy life because now you feel that money is important and also any profit or loss from it.

You will be psychologically and financially affected significantly when you make a gain or loss when you complete a trade. The weight of the loss or gain is significant enough to let you think about it several times and even note down the details of this trade. That also makes you learn a lesson from it whose weightage is dependant upon how much you gained or lost.

It is Important to Learn on Your Own

The significant things that can make a difference to your life are what make you learn on your own. Things are different when you are learning in a school or college. Even there, if you miss a class you wouldn’t bother much but what if you miss an exam? When you realize that a class you didn’t attend would have helped write an answer, you will realize the importance of that. The studies always take a significant weightage for a student’s life naturally whether there is any money directly involved or not. Students are very clear about the long term effects and their significance to their life.

But the stock market learnings are not similar. Actually any study that you want to make on your own and mainly the lessons from entrepreneurial journey are what very difficult to focus on. We need some strong reason to focus on those activities and learn a lesson with every action and its result. An entrepreneur can afford to lose it all but cannot afford to lose the lessons.

The stock trading involves a lot of learning and if you are not willing to learn you can never expect to make it big here. It is better that you give up now and spend time on other things that are important to you.

But if you are a person who has a long learning curve and is always willing to learn, improve then you should reverse this theory in your mind. Remember if you are ready to lose, you will definitely lose. What is important is not the loss but the lesson that tells how to avoid it next time. Unless the consequences are significant enough, you will never learn anything. The events should have a lasting impact and you should not pay, to learn the same thing again, in the form of repeated losses.

So always trade with the money that you cannot afford to lose. Then you will certainly make sure that you will not lose it.

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