Monday, September 28, 2020

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Stock Selection List for Short Term Study (2 Weeks Timeframe) from 28-Sep-20


Since mid of August, I have started doing this as a study so the readers of this blog can learn along with me. I am also giving valuable list of stocks for quick profit. If anyone bought Kiriindus and Trent on the morning of 25th August as they showed up in 24th August list, they would have gotten a profit of 4-6% by evening.

I got inspired for this selection when I once noticed Indigo on daily chart and next day bought its CE at 9 and sold at 18 after few hours. Later traded TNPL, INFIBEAM, DIAMONDYD, JOCIL, BLISSGVS, ATULAUTO, during mid weeks of August and booked about 5% profit in a short time. Every stock may not rise the very next day. But I observed the potential for a rise in the next 10 days, on few stocks over a historical period of five years. Thus I decided to make such list everyday and trade familiar stocks or observe them for building trading watchlists to grow familiarity to trade later.

Today's short term selection list for short term study (2 weeks timeframe). Their performance will be reviewed after 12-Oct along with two weeks lists at one time.

Today's list got 10 stocks.
company symbol today's close price % rise today avg volume
AEGISCHEM 239.3 6.3 413726
ARSHIYA 12.8 4.9 43085
AUSOMENT 51.1 19.9 19008
CEBBCO 17.5 9.7 71454
CONTROLPR 240.9 7.6 43010
KABRAEXTRU 72.2 14.5 47510
MATRIMONY 628.3 10 40546
NOCIL 144.2 11.9 2371184
PFIZER 5017.1 2 72530
TIPSINDLTD 295.1 20 62863

Same table as a picture.

In the secondary list we got 58 stocks. Because we had good market rally today.
company symbol today's close price % rise today avg volume
AARTIDRUGS 3038.8 3 435748
ADANIENT 295.7 5.5 8497145
AEGISCHEM 239.3 6.3 413726
ANANTRAJ 31.8 5.8 382907
ARSHIYA 12.8 4.9 43085
AUSOMENT 51.1 19.9 19008
BALKRISIND 1447.7 6.8 809298
BIOCON 450.4 5.2 5634298
BIOFILCHEM 49.4 5 53340
CDSL 493.5 4.1 2229311
CEBBCO 17.5 9.7 71454
CHOLAFIN 248.8 4.3 7817251
COLPAL 1440.9 1.8 732478
COMPINFO 15.6 7.6 181134
CONTROLPR 240.9 7.6 43010
DEEPAKNTR 838.5 4.7 1934355
ESCORTS 1295.6 7.7 2655064
EXPLEOSOL 524 5 29403
FDC 365.4 9.2 744358
GARFIBRES 2112.2 6.3 30975
GODREJCP 713.3 1.6 1275108
HAVELLS 684.5 3.9 1980388
HIKAL 184.8 6.1 1934624
JBCHEPHARM 1018 6.3 632464
KABRAEXTRU 72.2 14.5 47510
KAJARIACER 520.9 4.2 374522
LAURUSLABS 1460.8 10 2199194
LFIC 57.6 1.9 2443
LINCOLN 263.8 4.1 384908
LUXIND 1428.1 1.6 81142
MAHINDCIE 144.2 7.8 354060
MATRIMONY 628.3 10 40546
MCX 1786.6 9.2 512758
MEGH 81.4 5 2718674
MPHASIS 1350.5 6.2 563406
NAUKRI 3575.6 3.6 468085
NCC 35.5 4.7 12911738
NEULANDLAB 1142 6.4 238978
NOCIL 144.2 11.9 2371184
PAGEIND 20617.8 4.7 54234
PALASHSECU 34.3 3.9 2550
PANAMAPET 58.3 7.4 128491
PFIZER 5017.1 2 72530
QUICKHEAL 162.1 9.4 856603
RATNAMANI 1244.8 3.6 17779
RPGLIFE 406.3 4.4 150161
SAKAR 77.3 3 27896
SAREGAMA 567 0.6 43288
SEAMECLTD 430.7 9.5 22363
SEQUENT 158.6 8.4 2075710
STAR 707.5 7 1986442
SUPREMEENG 19.4 4.9 69120
SYMPHONY 910 6 55769
TIPSINDLTD 295.1 20 62863
TVSMOTOR 471.4 5.5 3091912
VAIBHAVGBL 1889.1 4.4 34880
VOLTAS 689.1 2.9 2269363
VTL 822 5.7 32180

Same table as a picture.

Commentary:

In the first list we got TIPSINDLTD at UC. AUSOMENT is already in my watchlist. But I missed trading TIPSINDLTD though I said I will trade. Because I wanted to keep my market exposure limited in a negative sentiment market. In case it falls a lot more, given that now FIIs are also actively selling day after day, I need to have capital ready to scale up towards the end of the downtrend. Or atleast avoid getting stuck only to wait for a long time to exit from stocks whose future might change making it a potentially long waiting time. If I have capital, I can put that into stocks that show up in the lists after a major crash. The current exposure can be held till their recover.

One point here is due to conflict in my plans I missed to trade. One plan was to trade TIPSINDLTD as it was the highlight trade from these lists that gave 50% return in 10 days after showing up in the list. No problem. I will try again next time. This is a small cap with <300cr market cap which also made me put the plan on hold till the market stabilizes. But actually momentum stocks, trending stocks are a buy when they fall in broader market fall. They are to be avoided when there is company specific news. If you keep this in mind, you will avoid unnecessary stop losses and won't miss opportunity to buy good stocks on pullback.

The secondary list indicates that those stocks have not yet entered downtrend. Incase one is holding those stocks, one can hold for more time. In case market stabilizes from here, these will continue uptrend for some more time.

Today I want to mention something I learned from observation from many years. The market gives opportunity for everyone to make profits and everyone to make losses. Every strategy will have scenarios where it works and scenario where it doesn't work. We should identify and recognize the scenarios where it doesn't work and scale down trading or avoid. No need to regret some missed trades. Otherwise even stop losses can hurt by having a chain of stop losses eroding a lot of capital gains.

It is especially so for the recent trend in traders wanting to move to short term trading. Because of the failure in long term trading, there are many people showing great profits in short term trading to lure people to invest in their tutorials, trainings or workshops. Those short term gains are achieved by finding high probability setups and trading with leverage (futures and options). Even those can have vulnerable times. But the business of training/workshops doesn't need to show all that. In a good market period, people will make profits and show that as proof to lure traders to buy their tutorials, subscribe to their trainings and so on. Once a period is over, there is nothing to worry for the trainers. In the next period, there will be a fresh batch of traders coming into the market who don't know what happened in the history. They will subscribe the next time.

In our country we have a big batch of students passing out every year after graduation. They are all going to start some job, many of them get frustrated with menial work in entry level jobs very soon and start looking for other avenues. In some IT service companies, engineers are put on bench till they are picked up a client for a project. Till then they have to spend time. With training, learning or any other way. They even get encouraged to open demat accounts and try their hand at trading. This is all a big market that is growing now. With it we see many traders-turned-trainers opening up youtube & telegram channels.

There is nothing wrong in taking up these trainings, as you could potentially save time. But don't miss the importance of developing your own intuition. That is more important than anything else. But anything else gets very well along with intuition. So its all a bonus learning when you have intuition to understand market phase, rhythm of market movement, etc.

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