Showing posts with label long term trading. Show all posts
Showing posts with label long term trading. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Why You Should Sit Tight to Make Big Money from Your Bets?

sitting tight on your trades to make big profitsImage Source

Many successful traders or investors in history have done this. Many traders still continue to sit tight and make big money from their bets. Sitting tight is the single most important thing that can make or break a stock trader’s portfolio in the long run. But it is more dependent on the type of strategies a trader uses than on any trader in general.

What Does Sitting Tight Mean?

Sitting tight is a term most popularly used in stock trading by successful traders. Because you can be certain to become successful if you employ sitting tight principle in your own trading! It refers to holding the stock patiently no matter how violent the stock may be moving till it makes the anticipated move in the desired direction.

It is much like its literal meaning. Let us say you are sitting in a vehicle and the vehicle is moving on a rough terrain. Then whether you sit tight or not determines how your experience of the journey will be. Those who sit tight will stay there till they reach their destination without leaving the vehicle or getting hurt. Same is true in stock trading. Just sit tight when your stocks are making you feel uncomfortable.

Any Trader can Sit Tight

Sitting tight can be applied for any time frame. It applies to short term traders, intra day traders and long term traders as well. It does not matter what amount of time you should sit tight, there is always a situation when the stock behaves unexpectedly but you are expected to sit tight.

Importance of Sitting Tight on Your Trades

Sitting tight can make a big difference on the long run. This is because often the biggest gains in stocks can be made by sitting tight on your bets. Immediately after you buy a stock it may either, just fall below your buy price prompting you to sell with stop loss or sell because it is just waiting above the stop loss and wasting time, or it might have moved up sharply and down violently though it shows good profit from buy price. In all these situations, there is an opportunity in sitting tight.

It may not necessarily be true all of the time. But often the stocks tend to move in trends, that is, they continue with the same trend and repeat the moves that they did earlier. For this reason sitting tight makes the big difference between a successful trader and a trader who just makes it above the break-even barrier.

Sometimes institutional investors or some smart high networth investors try to play games with the retail investors. It is easy to for them to play for a while because they have huge money to play with. They can risk a little for game play while testing your trading attitude. Recently Sebi announced plans to allow Indian Brokerage firms to use their software based trading. This was despised by these institutional investors as they can't know now whether it is a retail trader or a software that they are competing with on the other side.

Successful stock traders like Jesse Livermore have explained the importance of sitting tight in trading stocks. Even after knowing its importance we tend to forget it or violate it for some reason. But focusing on its long term importance one can make a habit of sitting tight on the right bets and make the best out of a trade.

Don’t Be Mislead into Holding Stock as Sitting Tight!

There is a difference between sitting tight and holding the stock. Sitting tight does not just refer to the act of holding a stock without selling it. Sitting applies to only situations where you should hold your breath and do not sell immediately till the stock makes anticipated move. So there is a plan in your trade and an expected result when sitting tight. You will hold the stock till it does what you expect it to do.

In holding a stock there may not be a plan. You may be just holding it for no reason other than hope. Most of the times the average stock trader decides to hold a stock only when it falls below their buy price. He/she does not get the courage to book the loss, when it is small, and expects it to turn around and close it without loss. It may or may not happen. Most of the times the stocks move in the same trend. Hence as the stock falls further and further, these traders hold it for eternity making the loss bigger and bigger!

But sitting tight in no way comes close to this act of drowning in a falling stock. In fact holding the stock in a falling market is opposite of sitting tight. Relatively we can view it like this: not waiting till the stock makes its bottom is sitting tight on you cash in a bear market trend. We should clearly distinguish before trading stocks as well as even while trading stocks. Most importantly you should be able to clearly assess the type of situation you are in and if you are already in loss cut short with stop loss, close the trade, or plan for second stop loss there is still an opportunity for the stock to make a move. Never take a third chance.

As the stocks continue in a trend, you will also need to sit tight for long term trading beyond one cycle. Long term stocks move ahead in jumps. It gives a big return if more than one jump is captured in a single trade. This is where you need to sit tight. It enables you to get an extra margin over trading expenses and also increases the profitability per trade. This ensures long term success of stock trader as only few such trades are needed which compound that return into massive gains over a period of time.

Depends on Your Trading Strategy

Sitting tight is not just for any stock trader. It has to be applied to certain types of strategies. Knowing them well makes a big difference too. For certain types of strategies there may not be a need to sit tight.

Some traders’ strategy is to trade that part of the stocks’ movement that is certain when applied a particular rule of entry or exit. This can be for short selling or buying stocks. They exit quickly after the stock makes that certain move upon entering. In fact here if you keep watching the stock, the stock will hit the high and wipe out the gains quickly. There the stock will sit tight before making another move up or down. As the margins of profit per trade are low for these traders, they do not waste time sitting tight.

Hence the profit potential per trade must be considered strictly when deciding to sit tight on a bet. The trade should generally be of a long swing type be it short term or long term. The expected price range potential should be very high. Even in day trading, stocks can make moves successively again and again on certain days. These days are not very rare for particular stocks. But on average they are rare. Hence a stock, that makes such moves on some day, may make only part of such move on normal days. Here it becomes difficult to separate it. So you will have to check the pattern, assess it and decide to sit tight within the day or over a few days.

Generally Good on Long Term Trades

Sometimes in day trading, immediately after you make an entry the stock might just become range bound into a tiny range. The volume may dry down. But you should weigh the trade-off between the value of your trading time and the odds of the stock moving right. Then only sitting tight here can make a difference. Of course profit potential over expenses must make it worth sitting tight. Unless otherwise you should restrict this habit to the long term trading only.

Sitting Tight can Change Your Portfolio Forever

Note the strategy you are trading with, the situation at hand when you are in a stock, and decide whether it is right to sit tight. When done properly sitting tight can grab all the opportunity that you have ever wanted to capture in a stock. It results in a long lasting satisfaction and experiences to share as you sat tight when the stock moved violently!

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Sunday, June 14, 2009

Is Long Term Trading Better than Short Term Trading?

I am sure this question must have occurred to many traders whether they are new to trading stocks or not. I cannot really say long term trading is better than short term trading or vice versa. Because there are times when both are good and there are times when only either of them is better. But nevertheless to maximize the returns from your stock trading you need to definitely learn which one is better at which timeframe.

is long term trading better than short term trading? , S&P 500 historical chart from 1950Image Source

The three basic things that happen with these two types of trading are the three types of market behavior. Stock markets can move strongly in a particular trend whether up or down. Other times they also make moves much similar to swinging. These swings form range trading patterns but they can range from months, years to decades as well. History very well proves this pattern. But it can be noted that the range trading pattern is what markets spend most of their time while the biggest movements happen in a relatively short and concentrated period of time whether up or down.

Only depending on the type of stock market movement can we determine which type of trading is best to do. A trader who bets only on one type will not be able to succeed consistently. And remember that it is the consistency of the right bets that makes a successful stock trader.

Strong Trends or Current Trends

There are times in the stock market that are most noted in history. For example, as per the current economy scenario the stock market slides of the last year are now noted in history to be the sharpest ever falls. These become popular because they do not happen every now and then. That is not consecutively for a significant period of time to move the market swiftly in a particular direction.

These times are associated with the powerful economic development or economic depression. Either way they make the market move suddenly and continuously in the same trend. The trend can be either up or down and depending on that they will be bull markets or bear markets. But you should note that these strong trends happen only for a short period of time even in a bull or bear market period.

When such trends occur, it does not matter which type of trading you choose. Both long term and short term trading offer equal potential for returns. I cannot really judge which is the best in these times because I found enough evidence to get the highest returns from stocks held for sufficiently long time for many months or trading stocks on short term that are making swift moves one after another in only a week’s period of time.

For example, there are stocks that gave as much return as 1800% within a year during strong trend. During the same time, if we try to accumulate the gains when made with short term trading of stocks that move one after another, there were enough opportunities to make similar gains. Though I could not take advantage of this myself, I had learned that it can be taken. Not many traders find this fact.

Also notable is the compounding effect of short term trades that make their returns comparable to one long term trade’s returns. Trading in strong trends is like rowing boat along the direction of current. It is very easy to do!

Trend Reversal Periods or Uncertain Trends

I think there is no need to give an example for this type of situation. This is because the last year’s market movements were a perfect example for this. When the markets started reversing their major trend in the last year from bullish to bearish, they did not do that overnight. There was a lot of time for uncertainty which made many traders make big losses well before the market made its biggest crashes in the September-October months.

It is true that markets made overnight falls like they did during January 22nd and 23rd. But the days after that they did make violent moves in the opposite direction. There was plenty of opportunity during that time but only with the right approach.

The right approach during these times is to do short term trading. You cannot make a long term bet because there is no certainty of the trend for more than a week or a month. But you may think that there is a risk with short term trading. As I explained earlier about the difference in risks between investing and trading, similar pattern holds here too.

The short term risk is obvious and makes you to be alert. The long term risk being non-obvious at the moment, can make you go broke in the end with a wrong bet. Especially it goes wrong during uncertain period. If you are still doubtful about this, go check your trading journals and observe the reasons for the mistakes during these periods of stock markets.

Most of the Time or Normal Period

I couldn’t get the right term for this timeframe where the markets spend most of their time. It in fact consists of periods where small bull and bear markets come and go. It also consists of times when stock markets move in a range but in a relatively longer period of time. Overall if the stock market average returns are calculated, they will turn out to be a big zero or even negative for a short term trader.

This is how stocks move most of the time. If you use traditional principles of investing without active involvement you will end up losing money after adjusting for inflation.

You might have heard that stock market returns beat any fixed income investments over the long term. Let me tell you that it is not true. It is actually dependent on the time frame chosen for this calculation. When the markets are considered during their strongest trending periods, their returns or losses outrun any other type of investments. But when these are considered during their normal periods, they underperform any other type of investment. They can even end up in loss.

But during these times both short term and long term trading can give returns. But that depends only on the specific stocks traded. If you diversify and then do short or long term it does not matter, the returns will get cancelled. You should go with only stock specific approach. And note the fact that you have to do this for more time your trading life. But more over the best returns come from long term trading during this period.

Actually I need to give a paradigm about long term trading. It does not have to do with the decades of period that you hold a stock. It has to do with the stock specific behavior which is identifiable unlike in a powerful bull market.

In a powerful bull market trend, almost every dumb stock makes noise. But during that time everything can give profits. During normal market periods, there will be only few stocks that make their consistent movements almost like spirals moving upwards or downwards. These stocks make their movements not just for a short time like a week or a month but continuously repeat the trend for many months or over a year.

The advantage for long term trading during these periods is that it is easy to identify such stocks. Just go and look for stocks listed in the 52 week highs or all time highs section of market statistics. Historically many stocks have made their golden periods in a relatively short period of time but still long enough for long term trading.

Long Term Trading is Not Long Term Investing!

Don’t confuse this with long term investing. People go for long term investing essentially to capture the benefit of long term trading but at a reduced effort on their part. By betting during the whole period of the stock movement, they are certain to catch that golden period as well.

But the stock market is not about betting with certainty. You should be able to handle uncertainty by learning stock specific patterns to deserve higher and consistent returns. If you go with long term investing, all you will get is a big return but without another chance before a trend reversal. If you rather go with long term trading, though you will get slightly lesser return, you will have the time saved for next long term trade. It is anyway easy to identify those next good bets. You will gain more here because of the compounding effect. What is good when compounding is missing from your finance?

One important thing that should be noted here is that long term trading cannot be applicable to institutional investors. It is because of their size of funds involved. Though they buy or sell stocks over a long period of time, they can only do long term investments without making losses to their portfolios. This is one area where an individual investor has an edge over institutional investors.

Another thing I should mention is that there is a genuine long term investing that gives high returns not because you are capturing a stock’s long period but because the sector or industry or the company itself performed well for that long period of time. For example, the infrastructure boom in the current Indian markets. But still these returns do not come anywhere close to long term trades of individual investors. But they are big enough for those with rich money that cannot be traded easily in the market!

There is Nothing Like Long Term Trading Better than Short Term Trading…

Now you know what is the best type of trading you should do in a given period of time. There is nothing like “long term trading is better than short term trading”. Of both, I liked the long term trading for the long lasting good feeling it creates, huge returns from compounding effect and at the same time not requiring as much effort as the short term trading. But the time should be suitable for that. Identify the market movement trends and take the right approach in your stock trading.

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Friday, August 15, 2008

The Nifty Caught at Moving Average

The Nifty is at high values and in overbought region. It tried to stay above 4600 but couldn’t stay for overheard pressure is very high. Now it is just above its 20 day moving average. It is now in a situation where its next move will clearly tell whether it has changed the trend from up to down or it deferred that to a future date.

Looking at the below chart it is clear it is behaving normally by falling every day after reaching the highest point in two months. It did like that many times in this year from January. Both the moving averages 20 day and 50day are at the same value. If you look at the right side of the chart it becomes clear that it changes trend downwards after dipping below them and making fake recovery for few days.

nifty char, national stock exchange symbol

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I cannot say anything about this routine behavior except suggesting to getting out of the markets as soon as possible.


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Sunday, August 3, 2008

Areva T&D for long term play

Areva T&D is one stock that is going to benefit very much form the nuclear deal. I have found several references to support this. And I have a feeling that it is not good to waste any more time. I plan to enter capital into this stock before this stock proves that it indeed is good for long term.

It is a global player in transmission and distribution of power. With nuclear deal going ahead, it might benefit from it. Areva T&D India is its subsidiary.


Look at recent news item:

Areva plans big play in India's nuclear power sector

After IAEA unanimously cleared India-specific safeguards agreement, World's largest nuclear power firm, Areva NP of France said it was gearing up to enter India's nuclear power sector in a big way and plans to float a separate subsidiary for it.

Areva has two separate companies-one for nuclear power generation, Areva NP and another for transmission and distribution, Areva T&D.

Source: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/News_By_Industry/Energy/Power/Areva_plans_big_play_in_Indias_nuclear_power_sector/articleshow/3320652.cms

Both subsidiaries will benefit if the parent company starts engaging in nuclear power.

Its home page:

http://www.areva-td.com/home_tdmain/US_57_Homepage.html

In the past, Business Standard has reported this stock on June 21 2008 when it made up moves with good volumes. Volume is an important parameter to be considered when judging any move in a stock. Without volume any move will be temporary consolidation.

I am producing the BS report. It comes in stock watch section.

Areva up on nuke deal survival hopes


DALAL STREET SPIKES


BS Repoter / Mumbai June 21, 2008, 0:35 IST




Areva T&D moved up by 2.24 per cent to Rs 1,367.60 after media reports said that the government might try to save the beleaguered Indo-US nuclear deal. Areva is one of the major global players for making nuclear power reactors.

The scrip opened at Rs 1,350 and went on to achieve Rs 1,416. It hit a low of Rs 1,341 during intra-day trades. A total of 55,404 Areva shares changed hands at BSE. The scrip has gained 2.89 per cent in the last week and has fallen 13.26 per cent in the last one month.


A chart from nseindia.com. I couldn’t get older data as it changed its name from Areva to ArevaT&D on July 14. Even with older name I couldn’t get data older than June 30.



A look at icharts.in data shows a better picture. The stock is clearly in uptrend.


As the volumes show, it moved up till July 23 with huge volumes till 1800 and found resistance there. After that it is consolidating with lesser volumes. Next move (legit) can be expected anytime soon as the price is nearing the red line (20 day moving average). A price near 20DMA = 1540, can be good to buy. It has bounced once on 25 July from 1600 and on 1 Aug also it bounced from 1600. It seems 1600 is strong support and if it is not broken we can safely enter the stock with stop loss at 1575 and wait till it makes its next upmove. That must be associated with good volumes. It need not be as high as previous times. Once a stock establishes or reverses a trend with sudden surge in volumes, it doesn’t need such volumes to continue the trend. Many stocks have shown such behavior in the past.



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