Showing posts with label national stock exchange. Show all posts
Showing posts with label national stock exchange. Show all posts

Sunday, June 28, 2009

Should You Trade in Liquid Stocks or Illiquid Stocks?

Should you trade in liquid or illiquid stocks?Image Source

Liquidity is an important property of a stock. It is in fact not just for stocks but for any asset that can be traded with money. Many people trade stocks without ever knowing about this property of their stocks. For a professional stock trader, who trades with strong trading principles, liquidity becomes one of the major properties to consider in his/her trading. Continue reading to learn more about its importance as well as what is liquidity if you did not know.

What is Liquidity?

Liquidity is a popular term in finance but I did not know it until last year. Even though I heard about it and its importance in the first ever seminar I heard when Anand Agarwal (from Hyderabad) presented about investing and risk, I did not quite understand it at that time. As I started trading on my own, and learning new lessons at one point of time I could quite understand the right meaning of this in relation to my own trading.

Liquidity of an asset is defined as the ability to sell or buy it quickly in the market without affecting its price. You must have heard that a stock will rise when it is bought and will rise when it is sold. In reality if you think again you will note that there is a seller for every buyer and a buyer for every seller. Then how come you can say that the stock is only bought or sold?

The fact is not whether the stock is just bought or sold that determines its movement. It is the change in value of the stock in the mind of buyer or seller willing to transact the stock at any time. At any point of time there will be orders for sell above current market price and orders for buy below it. If buyers want to buy the stock at any rate immediately, what should they do? They should just rise their order price, then immediately it will match against the sellers’ prices and gets executed.

How Does Liquidity Play Role in the Stock Market Movements?

When too many buyers behave in the same way then the stock starts showing a definite movement in the upward direction. This is the reason why the stock moves with buy or sell actions not just by their simple meaning but due to as described above.

That means stock moves when you make a transaction aggressively by changing your order to get executed quickly. This is only when you do not find enough number of stocks with the matching opposite orders. But what if you find? Then the stock price does not move in the up direction if you buying. In other words the stock appears stable.

Now to make sure that the stock makes some move at all times, we need to have liquidity. That is there should be buyers and sellers constantly trying to match their orders. No matter who trades them and how many trade these stocks, the point is to have very little impact of your trade on the price of the stock. Even if you sell your stocks in huge volume, it should regain its earlier price in a very short time (in seconds).

So Liquid Stocks Regain Their Shape

That is how liquidity works. You must have noted the relative stability of the big companies and especially the large caps mentioned in the stock exchange indices like Sensex for BSE or Nifty for NSE. This is because of their high liquidity. Liquidity, if you take literally ,also tells that the asset is more like a liquid in which you can quickly put your hand, pull something out and it still retains its shape after a little time. If it is like a solid, then whatever small piece you add or take from it creates a mark or change in its shape that remains like that for the rest of the time. Illiquid stocks behave like that. If you traded them, you can see the impact of your trade for a long time to be noticed by the Securities Exchange Commission.

Hence liquidity is referred to as the ability to trade an asset without altering its price. In reality different stocks have different amounts of liquidity. For that reason their daily movement ranges and the volume of transactions too differ.

Those stocks are highly liquid which are traded heavily with huge number of transactions per second compared to any other stock. With these stocks you can get in quickly for the price that you see as the CMP (current market price) at that time. You can also get out of the stock quickly for the price you see as CMP. In less liquid stocks it is not possible to do so easily. In other words liquidity determines how many shares you can transact at any given time in a given stock.

Liquidity Gives a Safety Edge for a Trader

Liquidity thus gives you flexibility to play the game easily. So it is safer to invest or trade those stocks that are highly liquid or traded heavily than otherwise because you can get in and out of them pretty fast. Examples of these stocks are many in Nasdaq as 100s of millions of shares get traded on them. For ex, Apple, Nasdaq Index QQQQQQ, QualComm, Texas Instruments, Cisco, Microsoft, etc. On the National Stock Exchange in India, the stocks in Nifty like ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Reliance, RNRL, etc are highly liquid. In general, NSE is more liquid than BSE.

Now you must have already understood how liquidity can be used. If you are a stock trader (or share trader), then you should go for highly liquid stocks. Especially if you are going for short term trading or intra day trading. When you do short term trading, you should be able to get in at the price you want to get in and also trade with the same number of shares that you would have done with long term trading. The reason is that regardless of short term or long term trading, a stock can give the same amount of return. You got to do long term compulsorily when liquidity is less.

Hence short term traders bet relatively large money in a short period of time. To absorb their impact and not to affect the stock price movements we need to select those stocks whose daily traded volume is very high. At the end of the day somebody has to absorb your moves right :). For example, for day traders or short term traders, many stocks on Nasdaq and RNRL, Reliance, JPAssociates, DLF, Adlabsfilm, etc. on NSE are right type of stocks.

But it does not necessarily be vise versa for the long term traders. I had explained the difference between long term trading and short term trading and when to use them in an earlier article. The long term traders often target stocks that may not necessarily have good liquidity. For example in the year 2007, the top 20 stocks that gave highest returns as much as 2000% in a year are the stocks that have low liquidity. It happens like all of the time.

Illiquid Stocks Too Are Important, But Play Carefully

This does not mean that you can not trade them. Many people get turned off for low volume and ignore them thinking there may be some scam involved. That is wrong. There is a professional way of trading these stocks. And institutional investors always employ such tactics to get in and get out of any stocks easily and quickly without draining out the stock or skyrocketing it. In fact institutional investors trade with a big deal of money that they mostly settle with highly liquid stocks like Infosys and Reliance. Just check the fund allocation into stocks of any mutual fund and you will find this.

With low liquid stocks, you should never consider short term trading. You should only do long term but with a proper strategy in deciding the number of shares to trade. You can also buy the stock not in one trade, but in several at different times in different order for the same or closely similar prices. It takes time for these trades to get executed as there may not be much activity on that stock.

Similarly while getting out as well, it can become extremely dangerous with illiquid stocks. You may want to get out at certain price but as you start reducing the exposure you will see that the next lowest buy order is at a huge gap. Either you need to have enough patience to wait till it gets executed (it often does) or lose money in the process. As the margins of profit for short term trades are less than that for long term trades in illiquid trades, it is never a good idea to trade illiquid stocks for the short term.

In many cases the right time to decide to sell is when the trend of the stock reverses and by then the illiquid stock too becomes very liquid due to the hype and attention it had accumulated over time. And if you do not get out then, it will become illiquid again as the stock falls. Then you can never get out with a reasonable profit from it.

Liquidity Changes with Market Trends

Note that not all stocks can be just separated as liquid and illiquid stocks. Each stock has a certain level of liquidity. Hence you should understand this level of liquidity of a stock from its daily volume of transactions. Often this becomes highest during bull markets or at the peak price of a stock.

Once you know about liquidity, now you should consider it while creating the list of stocks to trade for short term and long term separately. Sometimes you should add some stocks or remove some from the list as the liquidity of stocks can vary depending on the type of investors that trade it from time to time.

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Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Resuming Posting After a Long Time

I had lost touch with this blog for a long time since August. The breakdown of SELMCL coincided with lot of other things. The worst of recession has happened after that time.

September and October were the two bloody months that the world markets all together have ever witnessed. Lot of unwanted but inevitable things happened during that time. And that has set the tone or upper limit for the markets which haven’t crossed till now. I don’t think they will ever cross that limit.

beautiful beginingImage Source

I had become very busy with my daily work and couldn’t concentrate on continuing this blog. Well, there was no special incentive in maintaining this blog. It was a matter of expressing my thoughts about stock trading on a day-to-day basis. But because of overpressure in other works, I had to put a pause to it. I didn’t know how long at that time.

national stock exchange nseImage Source

Things were only getting worse and I had stopped my trading. I realized that I couldn’t trade the way I used to before. A loss was always unbearable for me and I always cut it when it is small even though painful. I never take diversification. That is a myth. It is like taking alcohol and driving a car. Feels good and safe till the accident happens.

I have learned the importance of organizing information that I had been learning with my trading. I will plan to post them over time. I have written down rules that must be strictly followed while trading. There are lots of ways to find stocks or filter them, for day trading, for trading in the morning or evening and also for short term trading. Long term trading is a phenomenon that doesn’t exist now. I don’t have any hopes for it in the future.

Coming to the present day, I noticed that my broker, Indiabulls, regularly sends an article to give a “morning brief”. This is cool to get some fresh information early in the morning. Indiabulls seems to be doing some best job for their clients.

Today’s news are not breaking news. But there is an interesting news. DLF has cut back its residential project prices by Rs. 13 Lakh in Chennai. This shows that there is a good fall in property prices in popular cities. We need to wait for more action that can spread this to all the parts of a city like the area where I live. Just be patient. That is surely going to happen.

Let us look at the chart for Nifty.

chart of nifty on 25 february 2009Image Source

There is a suggestion that there could be an unexpected uptrend after all the dancing that happened since November. The white candlestick after a “dragonfly doji” day. This is a classic followup. But still the moving average above it shows the resistance. We can safely assume that it will breakdown surely but gradually once it crosses below the magical 2500 mark. It will because the hell is going to break lose like anything we have never seen before. Don’t say not again.

Putting it aside because it is the long term trend, we can see that this time is a pause from the long term trend. These are the best days to start any venture, shift jobs, look for a new office or anything. I think this is the optimal chance. It may not come again anytime soon.

From the general statistics that I track, I checked only the stocks making 52 week high. I found one stock – “Cambridge Solutions”. It is in information technology sector. This is one of those rare, unpopular stocks like the SELMCL. But its volume is lot lesser. Putting the chart below. I think this can be the next good bet.

chart of cambridge solutions on 25 february 2009Image Source

This looks like a nice trend. It is bouncing above its moving average. But my broker may not allow me to buy the stock. There is some restriction in Indiabulls. We can only trade heavily traded or high volume stocks. That sucks, Indiabulls being the best in class brokerage service for trading on National Stock Exchange.

There may be more next good bets lurking in the shadows. It needs some effort to check the older statistics and filter them with various criteria. I will post them as I find them.

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Friday, August 15, 2008

The Nifty Caught at Moving Average

The Nifty is at high values and in overbought region. It tried to stay above 4600 but couldn’t stay for overheard pressure is very high. Now it is just above its 20 day moving average. It is now in a situation where its next move will clearly tell whether it has changed the trend from up to down or it deferred that to a future date.

Looking at the below chart it is clear it is behaving normally by falling every day after reaching the highest point in two months. It did like that many times in this year from January. Both the moving averages 20 day and 50day are at the same value. If you look at the right side of the chart it becomes clear that it changes trend downwards after dipping below them and making fake recovery for few days.

nifty char, national stock exchange symbol

Image Source



I cannot say anything about this routine behavior except suggesting to getting out of the markets as soon as possible.


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