Sunday, August 23, 2020

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Stock Selection List Short Term Study (2 Weeks Timeframe) for 21-Aug-20


I got inspired for this selection when I once noticed Indigo on daily chart and next day bought its CE at 9 and sold at 18 after few hours. Later traded TNPL, INFIBEAM, DIAMONDYD, JOCIL, BLISSGVS, ATULAUTO, during mid weeks of August and booked about 5% profit in a short time. Every stock may not rise the very next day. But I observed the potential for a rise in the next 10 days, on few stocks over a historical period of five years. Thus I decided to make such list everyday and trade familiar stocks or observe them for building trading watchlists to grow familiarity to trade later.

Today's short term selection list for short term study (2 weeks timeframe). Their performance will be reviewed after 4-Sep.

scrip  % change  close price
AAVAS 4.9 1443
AGRITECH 4.7 34.3
AIAENG 3.9 1751.8
AVADHSUGAR 5.5 196.9
BASF 20 1619.8
BASML 5.8 98.3
BHEL-1M 6.1 40.9
COCHINSHIP 5.3 359.8
DHAMPURSUG 5.7 147.4
FLEXITUFF 4.6 7.9
FLFL 2.1 132.7
GALLANTT 8.9 34.4
GALLISPAT 3.5 29.9
GEECEE 8.3 79.8
GMRINFRA 9.5 24.3
GMRINFRA-1M 9.6 24.4
HIRECT 5 144.8
IDBI 9.9 43.3
INDIANCARD 20 116.9
J&KBANK 6.7 18.3
JAYAGROGN 5 98.8
JUBILANT 4.4 828
KKCL 11.4 846.8
KTKBANK 6.8 47
LAOPALA 0.9 201.8
LINCPEN 8.6 183.6
NRBBEARING 5.9 85.5
PAGEIND 6.9 20304.9
PAGEIND-1M 6.8 20338.5
PIONEEREMB 16.7 25.9
PODDARMENT 6.1 202.7
PONNIERODE 7.2 178.8
PRECAM 6.8 36.3
PREMEXPLN 5 135.8
PREMIERPOL 8.1 25.9
PSUBNKBEES 2.5 16.4
PUNJABCHEM 5.8 520.8
SELAN 9 121.2
SSWL 9.5 475.4
SUNDRMBRAK 8.3 252.4
SYMPHONY 6.7 893
UGARSUGAR 5.2 15.1
VINATIORGA 5.9 1053.7
VLSFINANCE 2.8 56.2

Same table as a picture.

I am beginning to realize that with this many number of stocks getting filtered daily, it will be ridiculous to practically implement it. Filtering some stocks from this becomes dependent on another criteria, diluting the purpose of this filter.

So it is reasonable to first have a list of 100 or 200 stocks all of which are filtered based on some criteria, either fundamental or technical. Technical is more suited for short term trading. One such criteria can be the large price swing a stock does in its prior 3 year history. Stocks tend to repeat price action. It is reasonable to expect a large price swing with this filter provided it has done such moves in the past.

Although some of these might move by big % first time, it will be difficult to find such stocks out of so many. That might require following some news, events related to the company or simply earnings calendar.

Both can also be combined. As this is a start, I am thinking it is better to first start with a set of 50 stocks and apply this filter. This way there could be days without anyone getting filtered. That is good, actually. Because for this 2 week timeframe, once we buy a stock, we can't buy another till 2 weeks is over. So it becomes realistic to implement.

Moreover I realized that there is no need to test this in real time. As this is filtering is purely technical, for last several months or even years, such list can be filtered for every day and then study their performance after the said short term timeframe as a back testing. That gives a clear idea if it is worth doing such filtering at all or if a secondary filter is required to pick any stocks from it. I will do back testing study soon and post results from it.

It is also possible that this list helps to know which sector stocks are rising each day and so each week. That helps a trader pick a familiar stock from that sector and trade for short term.

For example, this day with a simple glance into the table we can see that 3 sugar stocks (AVADHSUGAR, DHAMPURSUG, UGARSUGAR) have gained more than 5%. Also 4 banks and one bank etf have gained more than 5%. They are IDBI, J&KBANK, KTKBANK, SUNDRMBRAK and etf is PSUBNKBEES. There are other bank and sugar stocks which if didn't rise today or not at all this week, they could potentiall rise next week. So this data could help in that way too.

I did not post this data on 17th as I started studying this very recently. The 17th Aug data showed NTPC, SUNTV and TVTODAY. Noticing two TV stocks, I correlated that late but >6% jump in these two tv stocks to be after a conccurent rise in ZEEL for two weeks prior to that. And ZEEL made big rise on 19th. NTPC did consolidate for two days after 17th and rose from 95 on Wednesday to 106 on Friday.

This filter obviously has the potential for catching moves in the middle of a trend. However it could filter huge list of stocks from which many may not continue the rise before falling back. So this data might be useful as an information as well, if not a direct filter, as explained above.

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