Showing posts with label stock trader. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stock trader. Show all posts

Monday, June 22, 2009

Apply Speed Breakers (Stop Losses) for Your Losing Stocks

stop loss for your stock trading is like speed breaker for your drivingImage Source

If we were to take the perspective of skill, the stock trading is much like driving a vehicle. You learn stock trading with practice much like you learn driving your car or bike. But to avoid accidents there is one thing that you cannot do easily on your own. And speed breakers are placed on public roads especially for this reason. When it comes to stock trading, it is a stop loss that works like a speed breaker for your losing stock.

A stop loss is a single most important thing in the life of a stock trader. Without it he/she is certain to drown in the bloodbaths that happen every now and then in the stock markets. Every best book I read about stock trading, every successful trader I found through my search, had always emphasized the importance of a stop loss for the long term success of a stock trader.

You Should Never Forget Stop-Loss

Even after knowing its importance it is very natural that traders ignore it once in a while. And when the hell breaks lose, which is not uncommon in the markets, the heart of the trader also breaks down. To forget to put a stop loss is a big mistake even if done only once in a while.

Stock traders develop successful trading skills with practice. Stock trading is much like any other activity. But it distinguishes itself due to the extreme risks involved as well as extreme pleasure it can give to the trader. It is much like the dangerous sports of skiing, trekking etc. People learn these things through practice much like a driver learns driving from driving his/her own car after coming out of a driving school.

Speed Breakers Avoid Accidents

You can learn to drive well with practice. But accidents still happen not because you forgot to drive well, but because a vehicle came opposite to you even when you are on your normal speed. Generally when crossing junctions, most accidents tend to happen. This is because at the junction an opposite vehicle can unexpectedly in a short span of time. And there is always a reaction time on the part of the driver that limits his/her ability to avoid accidents in such situations.

For this reason, at junctions, speed breakers are placed. These speed breakers make the driver slow down automatically because otherwise his/her vehicle is going to be damaged if continued in the same speed.

Even though we know that it is at the junctions that there is a good chance for accidents, and thus we think that we can slow down, still in reality people do not slow down most of the time. This is because the risk of accident is not certain. There is less probability for unexpected event of vehicle coming opposite. But when it does the risk is very high for the life of the driver. Hence to automatically avoid such situations, speed breakers are placed.

Stop Loss Cuts Losses Short

Similarly when it comes to your losing trades, you too should apply the rule of stop loss. Stop loss means to cut the losses when they are short. Remember every big loss first starts as small loss that you have the chance to limit. But it is hard to apply this rule because when a trade turns around unexpectedly we just can’t give up easily. We do not feel like taking a loss right now. So we let it slide giving it a chance to turn around again.

The stock may or may not turn around. Sometimes it may come back and give you expected rewards. That is what leads you to learn bad lessons. But remember that most of the time a bet gone bad, continues to get worse no matter how much you hope it will turn around.

Stop loss orders do a great help here by getting executed automatically when the stock price goes below a certain price if you have bought the stock. Sometimes we think that we will actively observe the market and sell it if it really goes down the stop loss limit price. But you should not do this. When a trade went wrong, you are most likely to be caught by emotions than by logic. Hence you should not believe in yourself. It takes sometime to get over this. Hence always apply automatic stop loss order.

Stop Loss is a Controllable Loss

You will certainly make a loss with this but it is a fixed amount that is within your control. Sometimes the thought of selling the stock for a lesser price than the current price does not let you apply the stop loss. In such times you should think about how worse it can get if you do not apply stop loss now. What if the stock falls by ten times more than the amount of loss you get by stop loss? Once you think about this, your focus changes.

To help even further, think about using that money for the next good bet. Stop the loss in this stock and go for the next best stock. Remember when you are following strong trading principles, you are most likely to win 2 out of 3 bets. If you close the current bet and gain on the next bet, then won’t you be more than happy?

Think about it during such situations. There is never a lost opportunity in the stock market. Stock market is like a blue ocean. There are always next good bets to trade. Get over the feelings of the bet gone wrong and apply the stop loss strictly.

Habit Makes Stop Losses Automatic

To make things even better build a habit to apply stop loss orders immediately after entering a stock. Many successful traders do this as a habit. This in fact works like a speed breaker for a driver on the road, because the stop loss now is much like an automatic one that is already placed without your conscious influence.

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Friday, June 12, 2009

Is Investing in Stocks Better than Trading Stocks?

Investing and trading are not really two sides of a coin as many people think. They are not opposite things. The only difference in my view is the risk a trader takes for a given trade that determines whether they are investing or trading in stocks. Many people easily fall into the belief that investing is better than trading. Let me shatter this myth in this article and show why the contrary is actually true.

is investing in stocks better than trading stocks?Image Source

Investing is a One Time Shot

Investing appears to an outsider to be similar to gambling. But to the investor it is not really so. Though it shares a lot of similarities with gambling and many so-called investors practically gamble with the markets, there is an aspect that makes these people slightly different from gamblers.

Investing is like a one time bet or one time shot. You will make it or break all in your only one attempt. For this reason investors study the markets and stocks and their background companies, economy in general before making their bets. Though this is time consuming task and also full of domain knowledge, this is what makes the investor’s bets better than gambling. Any trade done without a plan or reason is just gambling and returns from that can be attributed to plain luck.

Investing and Trading Both Help Each Other and the Economy

Investing money does not necessarily go into stocks. It can go directly into the business of the companies if not stocks. Even the stock market investments start for a company by investing directly for the growth of the company though initial public offers. Hence investing is more closer to contributing to the economic or industrial activity. It has a direct impact on the companies.

Trading is indirect. It is not a waste thing as many people think, who like to be called as investors. Without traders there cannot be a market as we see everyday. Traders make the bloodline for the market and keep it flowing everyday for the functioning of the markets.

If traders are not there then it will be a hard time for investors. The long term investors from large institutions need enough volume on any day to make a position into stock. Traders help build the momentum or volume for the day so that these investors can buy the stock easily without putting orders lower and lower with every transaction. It is basically the liquidity that traders contribute everyday to the markets.

Liquidity is important for not just stock markets but any business. Even if the economy is not good, enough liquidity can temporarily create rallies and sustain a short term bull market as we see today. Liquidity implies that it will be easy to get in and out of stocks with ease and without moving the price of the stock very much. Highly liquid stocks can be bought in thousands or even millions on single day. This is all due to the presence of traders who generally concentrate popular companies’ stocks.

That is how investors and traders work to create a stock market as we see today. No matter how old or new the technology is there were always traders and investors in the history of stock exchanges. Both contribute not just to create a market but in fact to help the turn-arounds or major growth phases of listed companies in the country.

I saw many people who think that stock market is like a casino and traders and investors are like gamblers without really contributing anything to the society. That is not true. In fact it is a part of our modern culture. It plays a great role in helping the economy and works like a virtual money lender which has more flexibility than banks or finance corporations.

Most of the people who start trading stocks, slowly start their bias towards investors. They think that investing is better than trading because they do not realize that trading is also like any other discipline. It is not just trading even investing does require same kind of study and effort on the part of the market participant as does their other businesses.

Investing is Not Low Risk Option But Trading is!

People tend to move towards investing because they think of the timeframes involved without bothering about how risk changes in the overall equation. There is a general feeling that investing involves low risk where it is exact opposite. Also people flock to investing because it gives them lot of free time to concentrate on their daily business. This is because they do their job only to certain extent as much as their current knowledge tells and get convinced there itself.

In fact investing is far more riskier than trading. It is because you do not have stop loss protections. I saw many traders who call their trades as investments when the trade turns into a loss. Instead of taking the loss they change their mind and plans, to let the stock do whatever it wants. They give more time for it thinking it will recover in a “long period of time”. Hence they name it as long term investment.

It is amazing how people shift their thoughts so easily when it comes to trading stocks. They also shift their identities as a trader to investor without much trouble. But the fact is that all big losses first start with initial small loss. A trader cuts them short and books them. An investor lets it become bigger and bigger until finally selling the stock when it just starts a turn around. How many times can you remember doing this in your own experience? I think many times unless you are learning your lessons.

Such is the risk involved with investing. You may now point out that same will hold true when it comes to making profits. By holding the investment long enough the investor stands to gain bigger. Let me tell that the reality is quite different. The stock can behave like that but not the investor. There are several reasons for this.

First of all many investors book profits soon because they can’t have an idea when to close the trade. That too they do it more often during uptrends much like they let the losses increase during downtrends. If an investor is sitting tight to hold the stock during uptrend it is much like the quality of a trader who does the same thing but with more certainty. Because the trader lets the market gives its signal while the investor looks for things that indirectly affect the market. These indirect things many times go out of phase and make the investor lose sight of the best price to get out of the position.

Investing is Not Necessarily Long Term

But there is another little catch here. Apart from the uncertainty of exiting that investors face, they also face the problem in time dimension. People think that investing is good because it is about long term. In fact the long time means either long term gambling or long term trading.

The stocks in reality make their biggest moves in only a short period of time. You can check all of stock markets histories. You will find that stocks spend a lot of time moving here and there. But only a part of the time they spend moving straight in one direction. It is only long term traders that get to catch this portion and make the best killing if not the maximum possible made by those bought at the bottom. Generally those who buy at the bottom fail to call the top at the right time.

The Reality of Long or Short Term When a Stock Moves…

The stocks move in a short period of time with all intermediate trends concentrated in that same time frame. Investors think that by capturing a stock for all its life time will increase the chances of grabbing its golden period of rising. That is actually gambling in the time dimension. Because you may be studying the stock and its company but leaving the timing for luck. Even the most successful investor Warren Buffet made the right timing for his entries and exits. All the principles will go into the ash if timing is not taken care.

Trading is Superset of Investing!

Don’t judge investing and trading based on false beliefs shaped by your trades that went bad. Learn lessons from them. Just take a step ahead and look at the reality. Trading offers more flexibilities than investing. Trading does not only have to be about day trading. It is like a superset of investing when it comes to the time and effort involved!!

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Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Does History Repeat? This is About Average Stock Market Returns

If you have been hearing stock market news on radio, or TV channels like CNBC you must have heard this phrase “Is history going to repeat this time?” There are a lot of popular phrases about stock markets that these anchors use at suitable times. Today I am touching upon one of such phrases. It is a famous question “Does History Repeat This Time?

is history going to repeat this time? stock market average returnsImage Source

There are several circumstances for which this phrase is applied. It can be about bull markets when everyone feels good. It can be about bear markets when everyone feels bad. It can be just about anything that happens in the stock market but remains in the pages of history. Overall for the current situation I am more in interested in that part of history that gave good average stock market returns. Can that history repeat in the future?

Why You Should Ask This Question to Yourself?

I have several reasons to ask this question. Many market participants still believe that history can repeat and we can continue to see good stock market returns in the coming decades. But my analysis does not indicate so. I feel that those good times are gone now. Atleast some parts of the world might face a harsh reality in the future.

Many people advice you to invest in stocks for long term just for one reason. That is based on the history so far. The stock market has consistently given pretty good returns on average per year compared with any fixed income investments. This is the reason why people tend to think that in the long run stocks will outperform all other types of investments. So it feels good to go for long term.

After studying stock market history independently and later studying in the perspective of industrial revolution of the 20th century, I had to agree with certain experts who are making calls for an alternative future. Though I don’t completely agree with them, I still feel that there is a difference in the present situation and the historical times when bull markets flowed in cycles one after another.

Warren Buffet Squeezed the Best Out of Modern Civilization!

The last half of 20th century was a great time for the average American. That was exactly the time when Warren Buffet entered the scene. He too could have lost but with the sound principles he follows, he made it big by the 21st century. Even in the group of people who follow sound principles of stock trading or investing, Buffet should be considered unique for he made such a success that is not yet matched by any other investor or trader.

Buffet squeezed the most out of the outcome of Modern Civilization indirectly. If we were to take a long term perspective of say another century, the future does not seem to be the same anymore. But don’t get disheartened. We don’t need a century of time or a life time to trade. We just need little time out of our life to make the most out of stock trading.

Does History Repeat This Time?

There are a lot of things that are happening simultaneously that pose threat for our future. Depletion of natural resources like oil and natural gas, global warming effects, deforestation effects, water scarcity and pollution, great economic disasters etc. all are happening about the same time in this century. The doubt remains, does history repeat this time?

I very much doubt about the repetition of history as it is. We may not get powerful bull markets like we got in the past century. After the great depression 1.0, there were three powerful bull markets of all time. One is during the 1955 bull markets, second during the 1967 bull markets, third was the longest (almost a quarter of a century) during 1984-2007. The last one was the longest and also most yielding bull market that ended like a bubble though not completely similar to the great crashes of 1933s.

In the immediate term there are fears about bankruptcies of largest banks in the history. This is really something that one needs to worry about because when they go down it is not just them but they are also going to pull everyone down, especially the innocent people because the governments are standing by them giving them full support.

It is like supporting a naughty child who creates lot of troubles finally ending up in trouble when the child blackmails parents by crying. Instead of punishing the stupid and criminals, for idiotic reasons the governments of today are only trying to help them – especially the United States government. By doing so they are posing great risks for their national debt and tax money.

This can eventually have disastrous consequences that I cannot dare to imagine. Many financial and political experts have already drawn out their visions about the future of US. I can’t believe completely in them but to a certain degree they are valid. They speak about how the United States will break down into small countries much like the United States of Soviet Russia did in the last century.

Not History, It is Uncertain Future…

Whether this happens or not, still there is a lot of reason to worry about the future of the stock markets. There is a great threat for the industrial civilization. As many claim this to be great depression 2.0, history may repeat but for down side. By looking at the type of actions the governments are taking to avoid another great depression or any recession, it seems the future will not be a repetition of history but it is going to be even more uncertain ride.

By making it uncertain even the people who are intelligent and well planned for the future are also going to get affected. Thanks to the lot of intelligent feeling people who are influencing the lives of every citizen.

If You Are A Stock Trader?

When it comes to a stock trader there is less to worry about. If you are a long term investor you should certainly worry about the future of the economy. This is because a long term investor only trades for one or two times but has to do that with great caution and analysis. When things do not turn out as expected, the long term investor has to shutdown or end up with wrong bets.

But if you are a stock trader, there is less to worry to about the future of the economy or the stock markets. It is because the time frame is small and a trader can switch between long term – medium term – short term to even day trading time frames. This is a unique advantage of the trader compared to a long term investor.

By reducing the time frame a trader creates more opportunities and flexibility to trade maximally best bets. But the long term investor has only one option. As the time frame can be small, even if the history repeats like it did several times in the past, it does not really matter for a trader. A stock trader, having the opportunity to do more trades in a given time period, gets to experience a variety of situations. Thus he/she learns to handle new unexpected situations as well.

Next time when you watch a TV program and the anchor asks - is history going to repeat this time? Don’t worry about what they are saying. If you are a stock trader keep in mind that you have more options to handle any kind of future. Of course except certain days like we had in the last year January or October. But they happen rarely so they will get compensated by later trades.

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Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Does A Share Trader Undergo Hibernation?

If you are into share trading like me you will understand that there will be times when we have to sit idle without trading any shares for a long period time. For many stock traders and even investors and gamblers out there, one time or another just stop trading. But there is a difference between prolonged gap and a casual break from trading.

does a share trader undergo hibernation
Image Source

The First Ventures

When you start your ventures into the stock market, you will be very excited. Stock market appears to hold all the hidden treasures and the easy path to your financial goals. This is how many traders start and the phenomenon continues like that everyday as the percentage of traders who involve with stock market is very less part of the population. It is said that there was only 2% of Indian population that had owned shares on the exchange a decade back. But now after the bull market of a life time this percent has gone up to 4. In US the penetration is actually 50%. But then again, the traders in the US are the most persistent traders.

For many traders, the first few trades get completed within no time. As most start carefully, their conservativeness initially helps them. They take the profits that come along their way. Of course there are some unfortunate starters who end up with a big loss in the first trade itself. For them it is hard to reconsider another trade. But for others the little profits that look not so little propel them forward to start multiple trades at the same time.

In the stock market there is nothing like first impression is best impression or first trade is that defines the future. It is like a circle of trades from which we randomly get a trade no matter who starts or when they start. Every trader has to go through the same lessons before they come to the next stage of trading. That is the beauty of the stock market. The first loss is not very far and it often comes turns out to be more than all the first few profits they make.

losing all the money on wallstreetImage Source

This is where the stock trader considers a short break. What many traders typically do is to let the stocks recover on their own instead of closing trade with losses. This is a fundamental mistake almost every trader does atleast once. It is the “Venna tho pettina Vidya” (butter-lessons) for many. Even after more than two years of share trading experience I myself find doing this sometimes.

Going Back Home Never to Return

classical great depression times, distress sale of a carImage Source

When I started my trading two years back, I took a month long break just after few days of trading. I resumed trading again after realizing how stocks were moving up on average (10%) in a month. For many people who started at the tip of the Everest of the last bull market in January or March 2008, I bet that the first trade was their last trade. For them they never consider quitting the first trade. It is very difficult position to be in. But very few realize that it is a kind of lesson that our life also teaches us on the way. These people do not have the hope of returning to stock trading. They go back to become workaholics again.

But when you pass through these occasional breaks, conservatively trading shares still there comes a time to stop and look back. Even the reputed traders in history have taken long breaks from trading or stopped to look back at where they are really going. For the turn of the century trader Jesse Livermose, his trading career was of a cyclical type. He made money, maintained a costly life style, lost money, went into debt and again made money trading He continued like this for few times before ending his life.

When a stock trader undergoes hibernation it is to say that he is taking a longer break from trading than normal. He is always conscious of trading in the future. He always knows what works best in the market, whether there are any treasures in the market and how to get them. But still he considers a break after a long sequence of trades that taught him various types of lessons.

In a typical break, the trader takes break after booking a loss or a profit, so as to reconsider the situation before coming back. But the hibernation is due to something that stops the trader from doing what he does before. He encounters a reality where it is no longer the same perceptions that he had traded with earlier. The obstacle stopping him appears larger than and considers various options to pass that obstacle before resuming trading. Having learned so many lessons, there appears to be something that has to be not learnt but conquered with inaction. Most the time spent by a successful trader is actually doing nothing.

stock market cookie, invest in familyImage Source

Hibernation of A Share Trader

Of all the novice traders that start at the stock market, very few survive through their first few losses to become regular traders. Many will go back with no intention to ever trade again. These people of course keep the blood flowing in the market with some fresh money added regularly. But the blood suckers are the regular traders. Sometimes they do not stop, take profits and go away, but pause for considerably longer time. That can be due to recession effects, other work creating timing conflict, some paradigm shift created from within oneself. These people know that they will come back some day to trade again.

For my particular case, having learnt to trade from short term trades to quick intraday trades, now I find it hard to identify the goals of a trade that is initiated. Is it for a day trade to be closed in any time, or is it for short term trading? Either types should give good results when traded with discipline. But what is holding me back is my vacillation between day trading and short term trading. Once into a trade one should adhere to the primary plan assigned to that trade. Another thing is the extra difficulties of a recession added with a day job, make it hard to keep focus on trading whether it is short term or medium term. So I considered hibernation since November 2008, that was the month when the world first time woke up to the reality of a Great Depression-2.0.

If you are also one of such trader going hibernation, I would like to know what made you take a pause in the trading journey.


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